In a post awarding Sen. Ted Cruz three Pinocchios Washington Post fact checker Glenn Kessler broke the first two rules of fact checking:
1. Think before you call someone a liar.
2. Dont level an attack on someones veracity because you doubt his sincerity or question his motives.
Here is the tweet from Cruz that led Kessler to go on the attack:
If Gang of 8 bill passes those newly legalized are exempted from ObamaCare. HUGE incentive for employers to hire them instead of Americans.
Kessler in his first published draft said no such incentive exists in the Senate bill to hire provisional immigrants over U.S. citizens. Then informed of his error by commenters he acknowledged that this incentive does exist. But Kessler argues it is of little importance and by failing to retract his Pinocchios implies that raising concern about it equals a lie.
Before detailing many of Kesslers mistakes factual and analytical here is a disclaimer and a bit of perspective so that readers bring an open mind to the facts.
In truth my work is under attack as much as Cruzs comment. Kessler links to three of my articles and blog posts and writes that I have aggressively pushed the same line of reasoning articulated here by Catherine Frazier Cruzs press secretary:
The Gang of 8 bill in conjunction with ObamaCare creates de facto affirmative action for illegal immigrants. Its reflective of how out of touch and broken Washington is and how important it is that we defund and repeal ObamaCare.
First of all I am with Sen. Rand Paul (and pretty much everyone else): Lets say undocumented not illegal.
Second I have never called for repeal of ObamaCare. In fact just a few months ago I was first to debunk a new anti-ObamaCare conservative talking point that had gone viral.
Third and most important one of the principal reasons I keep writing about this issue is because I have come up with a proposal that would allow immigration legislation and ObamaCare to work together in an acceptable way. I wont go into details here but please read it: Its important to get this right.
Its also worth noting that Roll Calls Taegan Goddard has noted the perverse incentives created by the interaction of immigration legislation and ObamaCare.
And heres a snippet from the New Republics John Judis who covered this ground in a powerful and principled piece with the subtitle The immigration bills disturbing fine print:
Even an advocate for low-income immigrants sees the language as a potential problem: We dont want them to hire immigrants over citizens because of that loophole says Sonal Ambegaokar who analyzes health policy for the National Immigration Law Center. We want a level playing field.
Now to Kesslers errors which might have been avoided if he had carefully read those articles of mine he linked to:
First he is shaky on the details of ObamaCares employer mandate. He writes: Some employers with too skimpy or unaffordable insurance coverage will likely have to pay a penalty of about $2000 for each employee eligible for health care exchange subsidies excluding the first 30 employees.
This accurately describes the penalty that would be paid by employers who dont offer any coverage to workers. But companies that provide skimpy or unaffordable insurance are virtually certain to pay a penalty of $3000 per worker who gets ObamaCare subsidies. Thats because employers will pay the lesser of the two ways of calculating the fine and the $3000-per-subsidized-worker penalty will add up to a lot less for firms with a typical level of covered workers and exempt part timers.
Its worth noting that this $3000 fine will be nondeductible. That means for a profit-making firm that pays a combined 40 federal and state tax rate it will be the equivalent of $5000 in annual wages. When you are talking about a low-skill worker who makes $15000 or $20000 a year that is to borrow Cruzs word huge.
Because legalized immigrants (officially registered provisional immigrants in the Senate bill) wont be eligible for subsidies for a decade or more employers could be sure of escaping such a fine. While many citizens (and green card holders) will opt to go without coverage and pay an individual tax penalty its unlikely that very low-wage workers would make such a decision. Thats because the penalty will be far greater than their out-of-pocket payment for a bronze plan as detailed here.
Next Kessler bizarrely says that ObamaCares employer penalties will be almost too minuscule to be noticed only 0.2 (about 10000 businesses out of 6 million) would be affected by the employee shared responsibility provision. Thats because it only affects companies that employ more than 50 people and 96 of companies have less than 50 people.
Here is the reality: CBO projects employers will pay $140 billion in nondeductible fines over nine years. And according to ADP 92 million private-sector workers or two-thirds of the total work at companies with at least 50 employees.
Kessler says Most companies that employ more than 50 people already offer health insurance.
Yes but that doesnt strengthen his argument because those that dont offer insurance will pay based on the size of their workforce without regard to citizenship status. Visa status will matter for only employers who do offer coverage.
Kessler then says CBO estimates show that about 1 million people including immigrants will receive an unaffordable offer from their employer.
Not exactly. CBO says companies will owe fines for 1 million workers who get ObamaCare subsidies because of an unaffordable offer of care. That number excludes people who are offered coverage that is too pricey or skimpy but dont sign up for ObamaCare.
But here is the really important point that Kessler ignores: Companies that offer insurance can dodge ObamaCare fines if they reduce worker hours below 30 per week. A growing number have said they will do just that to minimize the fines they will pay under ObamaCare.
In this context it seems pretty relevant to point out that employers deciding whether to cut a citizen or immigrant to part time would have a big incentive to tilt against the citizen.
Who knows how many will do so? But whether it is a large number or small there is nothing wrong with standing up for the principle of a fair playing field when it comes to getting a job or keeping a full-time job.
Lastly Kessler runs on and on about employment law and whether employers will know a workers immigration status before hiring a potential employee.
This again misses the point. Most provisional immigrants presumably have jobs already and Kessler notes that employers are able to check on the immigration status of employees. Further if provisional immigrants get a new Social Security card they will surely tell their employers.
While Cruz used the word hire it was a tweet for goodness sake and hire is just fine as shorthand for employ full time.
That surely doesnt stand up as an excuse for Kessler to hand out three Pinocchios. The only thing he should hand out is an apology.
In a post awarding Sen. Ted Cruz three Pinocchios Washington Post fact checker Glenn Kessler broke the first two rules of fact checking:
1. Think before you call someone a liar.
2. Dont level an attack on someones veracity because you doubt his sincerity or question his motives.
Here is the tweet from Cruz that led Kessler to go on the attack:
If Gang of 8 bill passes those newly legalized are exempted from ObamaCare. HUGE incentive for employers to hire them instead of Americans.
Kessler in his first published draft said no such incentive exists in the Senate bill to hire provisional immigrants over U.S. citizens. Then informed of his error by commenters he acknowledged that this incentive does exist. But Kessler argues it is of little importance and by failing to retract his Pinocchios implies that raising concern about it equals a lie.
Before detailing many of Kesslers mistakes factual and analytical here is a disclaimer and a bit of perspective so that readers bring an open mind to the facts.
In truth my work is under attack as much as Cruzs comment. Kessler links to three of my articles and blog posts and writes that I have aggressively pushed the same line of reasoning articulated here by Catherine Frazier Cruzs press secretary:
The Gang of 8 bill in conjunction with ObamaCare creates de facto affirmative action for illegal immigrants. Its reflective of how out of touch and broken Washington is and how important it is that we defund and repeal ObamaCare.
First of all I am with Sen. Rand Paul (and pretty much everyone else): Lets say undocumented not illegal.
Second I have never called for repeal of ObamaCare. In fact just a few months ago I was first to debunk a new anti-ObamaCare conservative talking point that had gone viral.
Third and most important one of the principal reasons I keep writing about this issue is because I have come up with a proposal that would allow immigration legislation and ObamaCare to work together in an acceptable way. I wont go into details here but please read it: Its important to get this right.
Its also worth noting that Roll Calls Taegan Goddard has noted the perverse incentives created by the interaction of immigration legislation and ObamaCare.
And heres a snippet from the New Republics John Judis who covered this ground in a powerful and principled piece with the subtitle The immigration bills disturbing fine print:
Even an advocate for low-income immigrants sees the language as a potential problem: We dont want them to hire immigrants over citizens because of that loophole says Sonal Ambegaokar who analyzes health policy for the National Immigration Law Center. We want a level playing field.
Now to Kesslers errors which might have been avoided if he had carefully read those articles of mine he linked to:
First he is shaky on the details of ObamaCares employer mandate. He writes: Some employers with too skimpy or unaffordable insurance coverage will likely have to pay a penalty of about $2000 for each employee eligible for health care exchange subsidies excluding the first 30 employees.
This accurately describes the penalty that would be paid by employers who dont offer any coverage to workers. But companies that provide skimpy or unaffordable insurance are virtually certain to pay a penalty of $3000 per worker who gets ObamaCare subsidies. Thats because employers will pay the lesser of the two ways of calculating the fine and the $3000-per-subsidized-worker penalty will add up to a lot less for firms with a typical level of covered workers and exempt part timers.
Its worth noting that this $3000 fine will be nondeductible. That means for a profit-making firm that pays a combined 40 federal and state tax rate it will be the equivalent of $5000 in annual wages. When you are talking about a low-skill worker who makes $15000 or $20000 a year that is to borrow Cruzs word huge.
Because legalized immigrants (officially registered provisional immigrants in the Senate bill) wont be eligible for subsidies for a decade or more employers could be sure of escaping such a fine. While many citizens (and green card holders) will opt to go without coverage and pay an individual tax penalty its unlikely that very low-wage workers would make such a decision. Thats because the penalty will be far greater than their out-of-pocket payment for a bronze plan as detailed here.
Next Kessler bizarrely says that ObamaCares employer penalties will be almost too minuscule to be noticed only 0.2 (about 10000 businesses out of 6 million) would be affected by the employee shared responsibility provision. Thats because it only affects companies that employ more than 50 people and 96 of companies have less than 50 people.
Here is the reality: CBO projects employers will pay $140 billion in nondeductible fines over nine years. And according to ADP 92 million private-sector workers or two-thirds of the total work at companies with at least 50 employees.
Kessler says Most companies that employ more than 50 people already offer health insurance.
Yes but that doesnt strengthen his argument because those that dont offer insurance will pay based on the size of their workforce without regard to citizenship status. Visa status will matter for only employers who do offer coverage.
Kessler then says CBO estimates show that about 1 million people including immigrants will receive an unaffordable offer from their employer.
Not exactly. CBO says companies will owe fines for 1 million workers who get ObamaCare subsidies because of an unaffordable offer of care. That number excludes people who are offered coverage that is too pricey or skimpy but dont sign up for ObamaCare.
But here is the really important point that Kessler ignores: Companies that offer insurance can dodge ObamaCare fines if they reduce worker hours below 30 per week. A growing number have said they will do just that to minimize the fines they will pay under ObamaCare.
In this context it seems pretty relevant to point out that employers deciding whether to cut a citizen or immigrant to part time would have a big incentive to tilt against the citizen.
Who knows how many will do so? But whether it is a large number or small there is nothing wrong with standing up for the principle of a fair playing field when it comes to getting a job or keeping a full-time job.
Lastly Kessler runs on and on about employment law and whether employers will know a workers immigration status before hiring a potential employee.
This again misses the point. Most provisional immigrants presumably have jobs already and Kessler notes that employers are able to check on the immigration status of employees. Further if provisional immigrants get a new Social Security card they will surely tell their employers.
While Cruz used the word hire it was a tweet for goodness sake and hire is just fine as shorthand for employ full time.
That surely doesnt stand up as an excuse for Kessler to hand out three Pinocchios. The only thing he should hand out is an apology.
