Wave Is Building How Big Will It Be?

by: admin
2010-02-19
Source: texasinsider
01/07/2020

By Greg Giroux CQ-Roll Call

The universe of House seats that Republicans could conceivably flip into their column is expanding and the number of seats that Democrats would wrest from the GOP is dwindling. That is the finding of a CQ Politics analysis of all 435 districts in the House which Democrats control 255 to 178 with two vacancies in Democratic-held districts. To accurately reflect the current political environment CQ Politics has decided to change the ratings of House races in 27 districts. All but four of the changes upgrade the prospects for Republicans another sign of the challenge facing Democrats in November and the fact that the partys hold on the House has grown less secure. Of the 49 House races that CQ Politics now envisions as the most competitive Democrats are the defending party in 42 districts and Republicans are the defending party in just seven. Eighteen races are rated as Tossups" meaning that they have no clear favorite. CQ Politics moved three Democratic-held districts into this group: Michigans 7th held by freshman Rep. Mark Schauer ; Mississippis 1st represented by Rep. Travis W. Childers ; and New Hampshires 2nd which Rep. Paul W. Hodes is giving up to run for Senate. The only Republican-held seat in this grouping is the Illinois district of Rep. Mark Steven Kirk who is running for Senate. CQ Politics originally gave Democrats a slight edge to win the seat but now sees no clear favorite between businessman Bob Dold (R) and Dan Seals (D) who lost to Kirk in 2006 and 2008. CQ Politics moved seven Democratic-held districts into the highly competitive Leans Democratic" category from the mildly competitive Likely Democratic" category. They include the districts of Reps. Earl Pomeroy (N.D.) John M. Spratt Jr. (S.C.) Leonard L. Boswell (Iowa) and Baron P. Hill (Ind.) Four Democratic-held districts were moved out of the uncompetitive Safe Democratic" category and are now rated as Likely Democratic." They are the districts of Representatives:

Ben Chandler (Ky.)
Bill Delahunt (Mass.)
John Salazar (Colo.) an
Joe Donnelly (Ind.)

Delahunt is viewed as a likely candidate to announce his retirement in coming weeks. CQ Politics moved three districts from Leans Republican" to Likely Republican" including the district of retiring Representatives:

Bart Gordon (R-Tenn.)
The Kansas district of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore (D) also is rated as Likely Republican.

Four House Republicans were added to the Safe Republican" category:

Leonard Lance (N.J.)
Mike D. Rogers (Ala.)
Thaddeus McCotter (Mich.); and
Judy Biggert (Ill.)

All were elected or re-elected in 2008 with 53 of the vote or less though none faces a threatening challenge in this election. Though the lions share of changes benefits the Republicans the party still has a long way to go toward making the net gain of 40 seats to win a majority. Though the political environment today favors Republicans there are still nearly nine months before the general election; only Illinois has held primaries and only four states have concluded their candidate qualifying period. Democratic committees and their vulnerable members have not yet spent the millions of dollars they accumulated in 2009 to prepare to draw sharp contrasts with GOP opponents. A few ratings changes benefit Democrats. The most notable one is in Delawares at-large district where Republicans have struggled to field a top-tier candidates against former Lt. Gov. John Carney the likely Democratic nominee who has been campaigning for 10 months. The ratings also upgrade the re-election prospects for Representatives:

Scott Murphy (N.Y.) where a GOP challenge has been slow to materialize
Melissa Bean (Ill.) and
Peter A. DeFazio (Ore.) who were once in the crosshairs of GOP strategists but now seem safe.

Moves to Benefiting Republicans: