By Bill Burch Grass Roots Institute of Texas (GRIT)
The longest campaign in history for the position of U.S. Senator from Texas
United States Senator from Texas; what a great position to aspire to. The Republicans currently have a stable of thoroughbreds waiting to enter the starting gate. The problem is that the gate keeps moving. According to the latest notice from Senator Hutchinson the race will begin in March of next year. Well well see.
Having been involved in many campaigns there are certain signs that raise red flags.
I have a great deal of respect for Senator Hutchinson especially for her years of service to Texas and America. But according to the latest Rasmussen Poll she trails Governor Perry by 11 with less than ten weeks of non-holiday campaign time left.
There is not a day to spare to make up the difference.
So how do you gracefully bow out without losing face?
First remember that Senator Hutchinson is a very influential Senator in Washington. She is a strong leader in Washington with skills developed over almost two decades of service.
She really doesnt have to guess about anything in Washington she knows. Her leadership in the nations Capitol was developed as a result of her strong personality intelligence experience and friendships there in Washington.
Why not run an ad saying that she must stay in Washington to fight for Texas and America against the Socialist Democrats? Why not say that it is too important that she be there even if it means it will hurt her campaign for Governor of Texas? Shes now done that.
Why not say that its not the time for Texas to have an inexperienced Senator carry on the fight? All of these are absolutely correct.
If you have seen her recent TV ads running across the state this is about what she did. Lets face it.
Which is better: Being in a position where you carry strong influence and respect on an international basis or being in a position where you must go through a long learning curve and need to build respect?
If you are young I would say either. If not well it just might not be worth it.
The more fascinating of the possible scenarios in this political seasons version of musical chairs are those that come into play if Senator Hutchinson does resign. This would place Governor Perry in a position to choose who among the thoroughbreds would get a head start. His choice of Senator would probably be elected in a special election.
The Republican stable includes in alphabetical order:
Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones;
Lt. Governor David Dewhurst;
State Senator Florence Shapiro;
Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams; and
Former Secretary of state Roger Williams.
Whoever is picked will have the power of incumbency another $2 million from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and a boost in name ID.
As we have seen in the past though that does not necessarily mean its not a sure thing. The first two Republican Senators since reconstruction to have held the position Senator John Tower & Senator Hutchinson both won in special elections during a period when the other state-wide office holders were Democrats. The appointed Democratic Senators holding the seat were not successful in defending it.
Should Governor Perry pick either Railroad Commissioner Williams or Jones he would then have to pick their replacements (and then their replacements replacements and theirs and so forth). Again this would give the Democrats an opportunity to win a statewide seat as there are no straight ticket votes on a special election. All candidates run on the same ballot with simply an R or a D next to their name leading most often to a run-off of the top two vote-getters.
Should he pick Senator Shapiro again we would have a special election though only in her current District. This would give the Democrats an opportunity to pick up a state Senate seat though it would be very unlikely in that north Dallas senatorial district. Even though Senator Shapiro has recently suspended her campaign for U. S. Senator that doesnt prevent a return or an appointment.
A really interesting scenario and very expensive would be to pick Lt. Governor David Dewhurst. This would trigger a special session for the Senate to vote for an interim Lt. Governor. Although the Senate can pick anyone in the Senate they most likely would go with the President Pro-Tempore of the Senate Senator Troy Fraser of Horseshoe Bay.
But that is just part one of what would be needed.
Lt. Governor Dewhurst would also need to withdraw from his campaign for re-election to the Lt. Governor spot. This leaves a vacancy on the ballot that would need to be filled by the 64 voting members of the State Republican Executive Committee (62 SREC members & the State Party Chair and Vice-Chair).
The most likely one to be picked would be Attorney General Greg Abbott. General Abbott is the most popular political leader among the SREC members in Texas. His pick to be the nominee does not mean he will need to be replaced as Attorney General but he will need to withdraw as the Republican nominee.
Once again in this scenario the SREC would then pick the Republican nominee for Attorney General and thus the Attorney General since Texas is a Republican State.
There are only two people the SREC would probably pick sitting State Supreme Court Justice Dale Wainwright or Ted Cruz. If Justice Wainwright is picked Governor Perry would pick his replacement on the Texas Supreme Court. If Ted Cruz is picked everything would stop there.
Remembering that all the Republican candidates are highly qualified and that no matter whom the Governor picks he will have made a good decision he may ask himself … which pick would be the least disruptive to Texas the Republican Party and the political process.
The only candidate pick that meets those criteria is former Secretary of Secretary Roger Williams.
If Secretary Williams was selected there is no change in any other position and no more appointments made. I predict that if Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson resigns the new Senator from Texas will be Secretary Williams.
Of course if Senator Hutchinson does as predicted many of the contestants will continue with their campaigns.
This may end up being the longest campaign in history for the position of United States Senator from Texas.
