By Karl Rove
From job approval to trust on the economy Americans are turning away from Democrats.
President Obama started this year in precarious shape politically. Things have gotten worse at least according to the Washington Post/ABC News poll released Sunday and The Wall Street Journal/NBC survey released Wednesday. They are setting off alarm bells for Democratsand for good reasons.
The Washington Post/ABC News pollwith an 11-point Democratic advantage in its samplefound President Obamas job approval at a record low of 41. In the Journal/NBC poll 44 approved of the job Mr. Obama is doing three points above his low last October.
In isolation these numbers are troubling for Democrats running in the lousy political environment the presidents actions and policies have helped create. But the numbers are even worse when put in context. Many key measures of the presidents and Democrats performance are lower than they were at this point in 2010and worse than they were just before the 2010-midterm elections.
For example compared with the 41 in the Washington Post/ABC News poll who approve of Mr. Obamas handling of his job as president 54 approved in the organizations April 25 2010 survey while 50 approved in their Oct. 28 2010 survey.
The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll had similar findings: Compared with the 44 who approve of Mr. Obamas handling of his job as president in Wednesdays poll 50 approved in The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll of May 11 2010 and 45 approved in their Oct. 30 2010 survey.
The Gallup organization found a similar pattern. On Wednesday it had the presidents job approval at 43; at the end of April 2010 it was 49 and in early November 2010 44.
On major issues the presidents ratings have also dropped. Consider the economy. In the Washington Post/ABC News poll just 42 approve of Mr. Obamas handling of the economy today. By comparison 44 approved in the organizations Oct. 3 2010 survey the last time the question was asked before that years midterm election.
These poor numbers have rubbed off on Democrats generally. When respondents were asked which party they trust more to do a better job handling the economy 41 picked Democrats in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll. Thats lower than the 44 who picked Democrats in the organizations October 2010 survey. When asked which party they trust more to do a better job handling health care 43 picked Democrats in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll; in the October 2010 survey 46 picked Democrats.
Forty-five percent of Americans in the Washington Post/ABC News poll say they intend to vote for Democratic candidates this fall compared with 44 who say theyll vote for Republicans. Again context matters: Democrats led by five points on this question in the October 2010 Washington Post/ABC News poll shortly before the Republicans smashing midterm victories.
Heres the most telling data point: The Washington Post/ABC News poll found in April that 53 of Americans believe it is more important to have Republicans in charge of Congress to check the presidents policies while only 39 believe it is more important to have Democrats in charge to help support Mr. Obamas policies. That 39 is the same low number seen before the 2010 midterm.
Given that Mr. Obama and the Democratic Party are in the same or worse shape they were in before suffering the 2010 blowout the question arises: Can the president recover significantly before the fall? History suggests thats unlikely.
Gallups records since World War II show that Dwight Eisenhower in 1958 was the only president to see his job approval rise (outside the margin of error) between the spring and fall of his second midterm. Even then Eisenhowers fellow Republicans still lost 48 House seats and 13 Senate seats that election.
Desperate to alter the terrible landscape President Obama is increasingly focusing on issues meant to galvanize the Democratic base including the minimum wage equal pay and campus sexual assaults (all prominently featured on the White House website this week). He is trying to increase the intensity of interest from his partys left wing hoping to boost turnout in the fall.
Republicans will help Mr. Obama if they react to his bad poll numbers by picking the safe paththat of keeping their fire focused on the presidents shortcomings instead of also offering a popular governing agenda equal to the economic and other challenges faced by millions of Americans especially those in the middle class. The Republican Party is the minority party which means that this election is precisely the time for the GOP to move beyond obstructionism and show that it has the answers Americans want.
