Romney still best positioned to make election a referendum on Obama
The Rothenberg Political Report
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. The next big event Im watching for isnt the next primary but the next NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Since the late February/early March NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll came out showing the right track" poll number continuing to grow and the presidents job approval hitting 50 three other surveys ABC News/Washington Post CBS/New York Times and Fox News have come out
showing a very different trend.
All three were conducted only a week or so after the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey.
In all three President Barack Obamas numbers were softening not strengthening and he looked to be in worse shape for the general election.
If the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll confirms what the other three showed its obviously terrible news for the White House.
Most observers have assumed that a growing economy would improve the presidents re-election prospects (dramatically if the improvement in unemployment and consumer
confidence were strong enough) but weaker Obama numbers in the face of better economic numbers possibly made irrelevant by higher gas prices and talk of a war in the Middle East would suggest that opposition to the president is quicker to harden than previously thought.
While Democrats can take advantage of the GOPs poor image and of Romneys wealth and stiffness to portray the general election as a fight for the middle class against the rich Romney is still best positioned to make the election a referendum on Obama on the presidents performance over the past four years and on the publics confidence (or lack of confidence) about the results of a second Obama term.
Given that the 2012 presidential contest still looks as if it will turn on the decisions of swing voters in 10 states Novembers results are not at all a foregone conclusion.
And on another Note ...
If you dont compete in Illinois and finish a weak fourth there (behind even Texas Rep. Ron Paul) after a weak third in Ohio (where you received 15 percent of the vote) you really arent a factor for the GOP nomination. Its as simple as that.
Oh and you dont deserve to have the cable networks cover your speeches either.
The only hope for the anti-Romney forces now seems to be a credentials fight which certainly could still occur. While Florida was penalized for jumping into the early primary/caucus window it also violated party rules by assigning delegates on a winner-take-all basis so a credentials fight over that easily could occur.
Thats one reason Romney needs to wrap up the nomination sooner rather than later. Not only would a credentials fight make the partys internal division even deeper and more difficult to heal it could be a problem for the former Massachusetts governor if he is well short of the delegates he needs to lock up the nomination.
