By Ronald Brownstein
For all of the numbers swirling around the presidential campaign as the party conventions begin each sides equation for success can be succinctly expressed.
President Obamas formula for winning in November is 80/40. Mitt Romneys is 61/74. Heres why.
For President Obama the winning formula can be reduced to 80/40.
In 2008 Obama won a combined 80 of the votes of all minority voters including not only African-Americans but also Hispanics Asians and others. If Obama matches that performance this year he can squeak out a national majority with support from about 40of whites so long as minorities at least match the 26 of the vote they cast last time.
Obamas strategic equation defines Mitt Romneys formula: 61/74.
Romneys camp is focused intently on capturing at least 61 of white voters. That would provide him a slim national majority so long as whites constitute at least 74 of the vote as they did last time and Obama doesnt improve on his 80 showing with minorities.
These calculations underscore the depth of racial polarization shadowing this election and the achingly
slim margin of error facing each candidate.
If Obama nudges past 80 among minorities (which seems very possible) or the minority vote share rises (also possible though less probable) the president could gain reelection while winning only about 38 of white votes. Conversely if the white proportion of the vote increases just a single percentage point (to 75) and Romney records any gains among minorities he could shave his winning number to a more manageable 59 of whites.
On its face the math is tougher for Romney.
If he reaches 61 among whites he would equal the best performance ever for a Republican presidential challenger with that group of voters: Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 Ronald Reagan in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1988 each won between 56 and 61 of white voters according to polls at the time.
If white voters maintain their 2008 share of the vote that in itself would represent a significant shift. Whites have declined as a portion of the electorate in every presidential election since 1992 according to exit polls.
That streak might end in November.
Obama could face both a numerator and a denominator problem in the electorates racial composition. The
denominator problem is that turnout among conservative white voters could be much higher than in 2008. The numerator challenge is that economic dislocation disappointment in Obama and voter-identification laws passed in Republican-controlled states could depress minority turnout.
And yet it would be dangerous for Republicans to bank on a declining minority presence.
Census figures show that the minority share of eligible voters has increased to nearly 29; smaller turnout from that larger pool still could produce a minority vote share equal to or greater than that of 2008. Republicans could blunt the impact of minorities by winning more of them but Romneys campaign seems to have no concrete plan for how to do that after a primary season when he veered so far to the right on immigration.
Obamas situation is hardly secure either. He might need only about 40 of whites to win (compared with his 43 in 2008) but his approval rating among those voters has often fallen short of that and Democrats couldnt reach that level in the 2010 House races.
The easiest way to view whites voting tendencies is through the prism of education and gender.
In 2008 Obama won a 52 majority of white women with at least a four-year college degree; these voters tend to be socially liberal and open to activist government. But he captured just 43 or less among the
other three quadrants of whites: men with college degrees and white men and women without them.
Romneys team hopes to increase his vote share to three-fifths among college-educated white men and two-thirds among blue-collar white men. But his advisers believe the election will be decided mostly by whether Romney can make smaller gains among white women.
Most polls show Obama maintaining or exceeding his strong 2008 showing with college-plus white women (hes polling above 60 with them in some key states); Romneys campaign hopes to recapture some of these voters by stressing the increased federal debt their children will inherit after Obamas term. Romneys team considers it even more imperative to reverse the recent gains that Obama has recorded among blue-collar white women by his effective portrayal of the GOP nominee as an out-of-touch plutocrat.
Attacks against Obamas record on spending and welfare will be Romneys key strategy there.
Republican strategists clearly feel the weight of trying to assemble a national majority with so little support among minorities that they must win three in five whites. This is the last time anyone will try to do this" one said.
A GOP coalition that relies almost entirely on whites could squeeze out one more narrow victory in November. But if Republicans cant find more effective ways to bridge the priorities of their
conservative core and the diversifying Next America that weight will grow more daunting every year.
Ronald Brownstein a two-time finalist for the Pulitzer Prize for his coverage of presidential campaigns is National Journal Groups Editorial Director in charge of long-term editorial strategy and he also writes a weekly column for both National Journal and The Atlantic.
