Florida Nevada Colorado vulnerable to white working class collapse bleak economics.
By Ruy Teixeira
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. Each election cycle there occurs a tired ritual in which pundits and reporters rediscover that yes indeed there are still a lot of white working class voters in America and they
represent a serious vulnerability for the Democrats. But just this once lets
cut to the chase: There will be a lot of white working class voters showing up at the polls next November and the degree to which they support (or abandon) President Obama could very well make or break his reelection.
In 2008 during his otherwise-solid election victory Obama lost the white working class vote by 18 points. In 2010 however things got much worse: Congressional Democrats experienced a catastrophic 30 point deficit among the same group.
While the first number is a figure Obama could live with repeating the second could very well prove fatal.
I
ndeed if Republicans can replicate that 30 point deficit in 2012 a margin which seems increasingly possible given the recent bad news about the economy Obama will have little to no room for error among his other constituencies.
For example even if as expected the share of minority voters increases from 26 to around 28 in the next election and Obama receives the typical 75 of that vote while the share of white working class voters declines by another 3 points a 30 point hole in Obamas white working class support would mean that the overall support he needs to win the election was teetering right on the knifes edge. In such a scenario Obama would have to hold essentially all of his white college graduate support from 2008 (47 a historic high for Democrats) to be assured of victory.
And make no mistake about it GOP strategy for 2012 will start with the white working class and attempt to drive up support among this group as high as possible. As an example just take
Romneys recently declared strategy:
Romney advisers see a disconnect between the presidents announcements of real progress on the economy at a time when there is in the words of one a massive disaster out there with peoples lives." They argue that on economic issues Obama still has trouble connecting with voters particularly those from the white working class.
These tactics are likely to pay big dividends both nationally and even more importantly in the states where the election is actually decided.
Consider the case of Ohio a state the GOP must take back to take down Obama. White working class voters could end up representing as much as 56 of Ohio voters in 2012 judging from Census voter supplement data. Anything close to a 30 point deficit in 2012 will almost definitely sink Obama in this state no matter what happens with the friendlier portions of the Ohio electorate.
Or take Florida Nevada and Colorado other states that are vulnerable to a white working class collapse.
Floridas 29 electoral votes would assure Obamas re-election assuming he manages to carry the 18 states plus the District of Columbia that Democrats have carried in every presidential election since 1992 (which together represent a total of 241 electoral votes). Compared to Ohio Floridas white working class is smaller (a projected 42 of voters in 2012) but a 30 point deficit would still torpedo Obamas chances putting this must-win state for the GOP firmly in their column. Nevada (42 white working class in 2012) and Colorado (46) meanwhile would also be put in serious doubt should Obamas support among this group crater in 2012.
Even more alarmingly the white working class vote provides the perfect way for the GOP to drive a wedge into those 241 electoral votes Democrats have held for five straight presidential elections. Contested states with high proportions of white working class voters like Minnesota (60 white working class in 2012) Wisconsin (58) Pennsylvania (55) and Michigan (53) could easily be flipped if this group flees from Obama.
But how likely is such a white working class surge toward the GOP in 2012? From the standpoint of Obama and the Democrats scarily so.
Its important to remember that this is the group that has been the bulwark of every GOP victory going back to Richard Nixon in 1968. And it is the group recently termed by journalist Ronald Brownstein as
The most pessimistic group in America."
In a
recent Pew Economic Mobility Project poll only one-third of working class whites thought todays children would live better than they do far below the levels of confidence expressed by minorities and college-educated whites. And in a
recent National Journal poll only a third of white working class voters took a positive view of recent Census findings on the countrys fast growing minority population with 58 endorsing instead the pessimistic view that these trends are happening too quickly" and undermining fundamental American values at a time of high unemployment.
These views are obviously rooted in the bleak economic situation confronting most members of the white working class. While thats bad enough whats worse is that the economy is showing no signs of the kind of progress that might take the edge off these sentiments. This should worry the Obama team greatly and encourage the so-called pivot" to the jobs issue that the administration is considering.
A deal on debt reduction however desirable for other reasons will be no substitute for better economic conditions especially among this difficult demographic.
To be sure the good news for Obama is that the level of support he needs from this group of voters is not terribly high. While a 30 point deficit might sink him he could survive pretty
easily on a 23 point deficit John Kerrys margin in 2004. That Obama would likely win with this very large deficit while Kerry lost indicates just how much the demographics of the country have changed in the 8 years since Kerrys defeat.
But while the bar for Obama may be lower he still needs to clear it and at the moment thats looking like a real challenge.
Ruy Teixeira is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress the Century Foundation and fellow of the New Politics Institute.
