Look at the Voting Blocks that matter
By Wayne Allyn Root
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters pundits or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with
one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them.
Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide.
I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney
victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter.
Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First most pollsters are missing one ingredient - common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry disillusioned turned off or scared about the future.
Voters know Obama now - and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88 of their vote instead of the 96 he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10 to 15 of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obamas Jewish support drops from 78 in 2008 to the low 60s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obamas biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned frightened and
broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That wont happen again. Out of desperation to please women Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around and Im a small businessman myself I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40 of them in my circle of friends fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to give someone different a chance." I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that hed support unions over the private sector in a big way...that hed overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didnt listen.
Four years later I cant find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isnt contraception…its having a job to pay for contraception. Obamas economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their childrens future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying I didnt vote for Obama 4 years ago. But hes done such a fantastic job I cant wait to vote for him today." Does anyone feel that a
vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obamas radical and risky socialist agenda. Its Reagan-Carter all over again.
But Ill give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
Wayne Allyn Root (W.A.R) is a former Presidential candidate the 2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee and a Tea Party favorite.
