206 Pivot Counties voted Twice for Obama Then Switched to Trump accounting for 51 of Republican Shift
By Scott Rasmussen
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. There are 3088 counties in America and only 206 of them voted for the winner in each of the last three Presidential Elections.
In other words these Pivot Counties voted twice for President Obama before switching to vote for President Trump in 2016.
The Pivot Counties had an out-sized impact on the election results. Despite casting only 5 of the national vote total in 2016 they accounted for 51 of the popular vote shift toward Republicans.
Not surprisingly just over half of the Pivot Counties are found in the Midwest. These include:
- 12 in counties Illinois
- 5 in Indiana
- 31 in Iowa
- 12 in Michigan
- 19 in Minnesota
- 9 in Ohio and
- 22 in Wisconsin
Nationally President Obama won the popular vote by 6 points in 2008 (52 to 46) and by 4 points in 2012 (51 to 47). Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by only 2 points in 2016 (48 to 46).
In 2008 President Obama won the 206 Pivot Counties by 10 points with a margin of 54 to 44.- In 2012 he won them by a slightly smaller margin of 53 to 46.
But the results in 2016 were dramatically different.
- Donald Trump carried them by 8 points 51 to 43.
- That reflects a net swing of 15 points - from D7 in 2012 to R8 in 2016.
A small number of these Pivot Counties (22) are true swing counties voting for the winner in eight consecutive elections dating back to 1988. Two counties Vigo Indiana and Valencia New Mexico have gone with the winner in every election dating back to 1960!
But while some of the Pivot Counties consistently swing with the national mood a larger number have a background that traditionally leans towards Democratic candidates. Most voted for the Democratic candidate during the Republican victories in 1988 2000 & 2004. Only a few voted Republican during the
Democratic victories in 1992 & 1996.
This suggests strongly that Donald Trumps ability to capture the allegiance of certain formerly Democratic voters was essential to his victory. As the next few years unfold it will be interesting to see if President Trump can retain the support of these counties. It will also be fascinating to explore whether that support is unique to the president or if it is part of a broader shift to the Republican Party.
In any such evaluation its essential to keep a proper perspective and remember that the political system is a lagging indicator of cultural trends. Its the culture and technology that lead the nation forward.
Because of their unique status and significant impact these Pivot Counties are a good place to study the changing political landscape. I am thrilled to be working with
Ballotpedia the Encyclopedia of American Politics to examine what these counties can teach us about the ever-shifting landscape of American politics.
From now until Election 2018 we will regularly release new Pivot County data and analysis.
Additionally every morning at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Ballotpedia will publish
Scott Rasmussens Number of the Day to explore the intersection of culture politics & technology.
Scott Rasmussen is an Editor-At-Large for Ballotpedia and a Senior Fellow for the Study of Self-Governance at The Kings College in New York. Check Out Rasmussens Number of the Day released weekday mornings at 8:00 a.m. Eastern.
