4 Reasons Anti-Trump Latino Voters Wont Swing the Mid-Term Elections

Some Latinos like other Americans are themselves weary of undocumented immigration. By Steffen W. Schmidt Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. The Democratic Party shouldnt count on Latinos swinging many mid-term races their way this year. The so-called Latino vote" has always been more promise than reality for Democrats but my political science research indicates that a Latino blue wave is not likely to tip the upcoming election in Democrats favor. Approximately 27.3 million U.S. Latinos are eligible to vote in Novembers midterm elections 12 of all eligible voters according to the Pew Research Center. Democrats hope that this big bloc of voters will punish Republicans for President Donald Trumps anti-immigrant policies. They are courting Latinos in red states like Arizona and Florida.

1. Eligibility & Turnout

To start with immigration status limits the political impact of this group. And Latino voter turnout has also been historically low.

• According to U.S. Census Bureau figures only 44 of U.S. Latinos are eligible to vote a lower proportion than Asian African-American and white voters.
•  In the 2016 U.S. election Pew finds only 48 of eligible Latino voters cast a ballot compared to 65.3 of whites and 59.6 of blacks.

Gerrymandering of congressional districts and onerous voter registration barriers also significantly diminish Latinos voting power. Some U.S. Latinos are highly likely to vote including older voters with a college degree and Cuban-Americans. But just one in three voting-aged Latinos under 29 voted in the last presidential election. Turnout was even lower among Latinos with less than a high school diploma. Fully 20 of U.S. Latino voters fall into this low-turnout category.

2. The Location of Swing Districts

The impact of the Latino vote on Senate and House races in 2018 is likewise limited by geographic factors. More than half (52) of all Latinos eligible to vote live in California Texas and New York. Congressional candidates in these states already understand the power of Latino voters who have been decisive players in at least two dozen districts since the 1980s. Candidates successfully target Latino constituents in their media campaigns and outreach work. In four big swing states on the other hand Georgia Iowa North Carolina and Ohio Latinos make up 5 or less of eligible voters. As a result Latino voters may be decisive for Democrats in just a handful of races: those occurring in states with competitive districts and significant Latino populations including Virginia Florida Texas Arizona and California. In my view the Latino vote could help push Democrats to victory in just seven races in five states. These include:

• Virginias 10th district in the suburbs of Washington D.C.;
• Texas southwestern 23rd and suburban 7th districts;
• Floridas 26th district which includes Miami; and
• Arizonas Tucson-based 2nd district.

3. Latinos Arent Single-Issue Voters

The assumption that Latinos outraged by Trumps immigration policies will come out enmasse to vote against his party reveals another errant assumption about this voter segment namely that all Latinos care about the same things. The Latino demographic is as diverse as any other population in America. It is a mistake to think that any 27.3 million eligible voters would rally around the same issues even Trumps immigration policies. The facts show that Latinos vote based on the same array of factors (gender identity profession religious affiliation economic class education) as other groups. According to Gallup Latino voters are concerned about health care jobs the economy and inequality. Just 12 cite immigration as their primary concern. Some Latinos like other Americans Trump targeted during his campaign are themselves weary of undocumented immigration. Gallup polls over the past six years find that an average of 67 of Hispanics have said they worry a great deal or fair amount" about illegal immigration. Thats 10 higher than non-Hispanic white respondents and 12 higher than black respondents.

4. Inaccurate Polling

The truth is we just dont know enough about the preferences of Latino voters.

• No more than half a dozen polls out of hundreds target the Latino voter segment exclusively.
• What polling is done on Latinos is often not well-designed.
• Many Latino political leaders Ive interviewed say that Exit Polls cannot accurately define who is a Latino and that surveys do not draw from representative samples of Latino Districts.

As a result their projections about Latino voter behavior are often inaccurate. Republicans Could Lose Latino Support All that said I do believe 2018 will be a sharp and significant test of Latino voter behavior in the United States more so than the 2016 presidential election. Back then Trump was just a candidate and his anti-immigrant tirades could be passed off as campaign rhetoric. Now many U.S. Latinos and their families are feeling the direct impact of the presidents policies which have been both positive and negative. Steffen Schmidt is an Endowed Professor of Political Science at Iowa State University. He is the author of 10 books is a founding member of LULAC Council 307 in Iowa and served as Chair of the Iowa Governors Spanish Speaking Commission (later renamed Dept. of Latino Affairs.)