The Monmouth University Poll is respected – as a high-quality survey with distinct bias toward Democrats
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — Even though most Democrats hold a favorable opinion of President Joe Biden, only one in four would want him to run for a second term. More than 4 in 10 would prefer to see the incumbent step aside in favor of another candidate according to a Monmouth University Poll of self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters. These voters, however, do not have a clear idea of who they would like to see as the party’s nominee in Biden’s stead.
Three in four Democrats (74%) have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, and just 14% hold an unfavorable view. However, when asked what they want to see happen in 2024 if the choice was up to them, nearly half (44%) would like Biden to step aside so someone else can run as the Democrat for president.
Just 25% say their preference is for Biden to pursue a second term, while 30% say they have no preference either way.
- Among voters who identify as strong Democrats – representing just over half of the party’s electorate – 36% want Biden to run again, and 36% would prefer him to step aside.
- Among voters with very liberal political views – representing just over one-quarter of Democrats nationwide – more than half (52%) want Biden to turn the reins over to someone else and
- just 22% say they prefer to see the incumbent seek another term.
- A 54% majority of Democrat voters under 50 years old would also like to see Biden defer to another candidate in 2024.
Half (51%) of the Democrat electorate cannot offer a name when asked who they would like to see as the party’s nominee if Biden does not run.
Among those who do have a preferred alternative, Vice President Kamala Harris (13%) is the only potential contender who registers above single digits.
These results are basically the same among party voters who specifically say they want Biden to step aside for another candidate.
“Democrats appear to be saying they like the job Biden has done, but maybe it’s time for him to move on when his term is up.
"However, no top tier of candidates emerges when these voters are asked to name a preferred alternative.
"Part of that could simply be the holding pattern that Democrats are in because Biden has signaled that he will, in fact, run,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
About half the Democratic voters polled indicate they initially supported a candidate other than Biden during the 2020 presidential primary season, including 20% who backed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and 11% who supported Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
One-third of Democrats (33%) say they backed Biden from the start.
Among those who initially supported a candidate other than Biden for the nomination, 44% feel their first-choice candidate would actually have done a better job as president. Another 46% feel their initial preference would have performed about the same as Biden and just 9% feel that candidate would have done a worse job than Biden.
The poll also asked Democratic voters about their views of leaders in the party. The opinions were largely positive, with the main difference being varying levels of familiarity and name recognition. The more widely known party leaders, other than Biden, include:
- Sanders (71% favorable and 12% unfavorable)
- Warren (64%–12%), and
- Harris (64%–19%).
Other Democrat officeholders that are familiar to a majority of the party’s electorate include:
- former Georgia legislator Stacey Abrams (64%–6%)
- Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (58%–10%)
- Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (48%–12%)
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom (47%–13%), and
- Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (46%–9%).
Author Marianne Williamson, who ran in 2020 and has announced her intention to run again in 2024, is also known by just 1 in 4 voters and has a net negative rating of 11% favorable and 16% unfavorable.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone and online from March 16th-20th, 2023 with 542 Democrat & Democrat leaning voters in the United States. The question results have a margin of error of +/- 6.3% for the full sample. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.