Acting Texas Comptroller Kelly Hancock Releases 2026-27 Certification Revenue Estimate

“This estimate assumes continued moderate expansion in the Texas economy through the biennium.”

Texas Insider Report: AUSTIN, Texas – Acting Texas Comptroller Kelly Hancock announced today the release of the Certification Revenue Estimate (CRE) for the fiscal 2026-27 biennium.

Before each regular legislative session, the Comptroller's office issues a Biennial Revenue Estimate (BRE) that estimates how much revenue will be available for spending in the state's next two-year budget cycle. After the session — and this year after two special sessions — the agency releases the CRE to provide the detailed basis by which the Comptroller certified the budget and any other bills making appropriations. 

The CRE revises estimates in the BRE to reflect legislative activity and current economic information and considers final revenue numbers for the recently ended fiscal year.

As a result of legislative actions and an updated economic forecast, the Comptroller’s office now expects revenue available for general spending in 2026-27 to total about $203.63 billion, up 1.7 percent from the 2024-25 biennium. This revenue will support $198.97 billion in general-purpose spending called for by the 89th Legislature and will result in a projected fiscal 2027 balance available for certification of $4.66 billion.

“This estimate assumes continued moderate expansion in the Texas economy through the biennium,” Hancock said. “We will continue to closely monitor factors that could influence the state's economic outlook.”

The State Highway Fund (SHF) and Economic Stabilization Fund (ESF; the state’s “Rainy Day Fund”) both receive funding from oil and gas severance taxes. 

Fiscal 2026 transfers will total $2.52 billion to the SHF based on severance taxes collected in fiscal 2025 and $2.46 billion to the SHF in fiscal 2027 based on severance taxes collected in fiscal 2026. The ESF reached its allowable cap after a partial severance tax transfer of $2.05 billion at the start of fiscal 2026. There will be no transfer to the ESF in fiscal 2027.

After accounting for interest and investment earnings by the ESF, along with expenditures authorized by appropriations made in recent legislative sessions, the CRE projects a fiscal 2027 ending Rainy Day Fund balance of $28.48 billion.

The Comptroller’s office has created a useful infographic featuring highlights from the CRE. The infographic, detailed tables and the CRE can be found on the Comptroller’s website.