Democrats hold fewest U.S. House Seats Governorships & State Legislative Seats since 1920s
By Michael Barone
Herewith some unsolicited free advice for the Democratic party. Whether its worth more than the price I leave up to Democrats to decide.
The first thing to remember is that the Democratic party is the oldest political party in the world. Its had its ups and downs over many years. Under any fair reading of history it has done many good things for this country and the world. It is not going away any time soon.
But it is in a bad way. Its chances of recapturing the presidency in 2020 depend largely on decisions by Republicans and on events outside anyones control.
Democrats currently hold fewer House seats governorships and state legislatures than at any time since the 1920s. And the signature policies of the outgoing Democratic president Obamacare and the Iran nuclear deal are not political assets.
The first thing Democrats need to do is to end the alibi game. Yes its a shattering experience to lose a presidential election which until the nine oclock hour on election night you seemed sure you would win.
But alibis dont help you win next time.
- Dont blame fake news when your candidate had lots more money to spend delivering her message.
- Dont blame the FBI Director when your candidate had violated criminal laws and the attorney general had to disqualify herself after revelation of her secret meeting with the candidates husband.
Dont blame the racism of an electorate that twice elected the first black president.- Dont blame the Electoral College when everyone knew beforehand that you need 270 electoral votes not a popular vote plurality to win.
Blame instead the Clinton campaigns ascendant America strategy to reassemble the 2012 Obama coalition of non-whites and millennials on the assumption that the attitudes of other voters notably white non-college graduates who cast who cast essential Obama votes in the Midwest would remain static.
The exit polls showed Trump supposedly toxic to non-whites running slightly better among them than Mitt Romney. Their apparent regression to mean to voting more like the national average does not support the theory that non-whites tormented by oppression and seething with grievance will remain overwhelmingly Democratic forever.
At the same time demonizing white non-college-graduates (many of whom voted for Obama) as deplorables and irredeemables stricken with implicit racism as Hillary Clinton did Sept. 9 helped to insure that they would vote more like a grievance-afflicted minority group. You dont win peoples votes by calling them names.
To recover Democrats need to take a look at the map. The relevant map in this election divides the nation between:
- Coastal America - the West Coast plus Hawaii the Northeast from Maine to D.C. and
- Heartland America - the South Midwest Rocky Mountains plus energy states Alaska and Pennsylvania
Coastal America casts 31 of popular votes and 170 electoral votes. Heartland America casts 69 of popular votes and 368 electoral votes.
Hillary Clinton carried all but 1 electoral vote (the Maine 2nd congressional district vote) in coastal America. But in heartland America where Obama lost the electoral vote 206-162 in 2012 Clinton carried only 63 electoral votes to Donald Trumps 305. Yes he won the 46 electoral votes of Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin by a combined popular vote margin of only (at latest count) 77193. But the fact is he didnt need a single electoral vote from coastal America to win.
Democrats are even weaker in heartland down-ballot elections.
In races for House of Representatives Republicans won more than 200 seats there to only 90 for Democrats. Democrats could win half of the Republicans 35 U.S. House seats in coastal America and still fall short of a House majority. In state legislatures heartland Republicans outnumber Democrats nearly 2-1 in state senates (935-464) and lower houses (2339-1272).
My advice to Democrats is the advice Justice Louis Brandeis gave to young New Dealers in the 1930s. Get out of Washington he said. Go back to the states. Leave the latte-soaked coastal cocoons return to your hometown or set down new roots and run for
office in the heartland. And not in university towns; in real America.
Thats what many young liberals did in the 1970s shoring up Democratic congressional and legislative majorities for two decades learning from constituents rather than instructing them participating in local civic culture rather than lamenting it.
The Democratic party and the nation would be well served if smart ambitious young Democrats started packing their bags and competing where their party has been falling fatally short.
