Biden's Lead Over Trump Collapses to Statistical 49%-47% Tie in New Zogby/EMI Poll

Biden's support among Hispanics, at 61%, remains well short of the 66%-67% he really needs to win the election. The same holds true for Biden among Blacks.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — With four weeks until the November 3rd Election, President Donald Trump has moved into a statistical tie with Democrat Joe Biden according to a new Zogby/EMI National Poll of 1,006 "Likely Voters". And, by a margin of 43%-40%, voters now think Mr. Trump will win the election.

The previous Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions poll released August 29th showed Biden with a 48% to 42% lead, but when it comes to how strongly voters back their chosen candidate, an August 13th, 2020 Pew Research poll found 66% of Trump supporters "strongly back" him, while just 46% of Biden supporters said the same.

The Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions random sample online poll began at 7pm Friday, October 2nd, after the president was hospitalized, and has an overall +/- 3.2% margin of error.

The President’s job approval has also now climbed to 50% according to the poll, while 47% disapprove.

The President leads among:
 
  • Republicans – 94%-6%
  • Very Conservative Voters – 92%-8%
  • Conservatives – 78%-18%
  • Evangelicals – 68%-32%
  • Whites – 56%-40%
  • Parents of Children Under 17 – 54%-40%
  • Voters Age 50-64 – 53%-45%
  • Catholic Voters – 51%-46%
  • Voters Over Age 65 – 50%-47%
Biden is leading among:
 
  • Democrats – 91%-8%
  • Blacks – 87%-11%
  • Progressives – 85%-15%
  • Liberals – 85%-14%
  • Hispanics – 61%-34%
  • Voters Age 18-29 – 60%-35%
  • Moderates – 58%-36%
  • Women – 56%-41%
  • Voters Age 30-49 – 50%-45%
The poll showed the two candidates tied among Independent Voters at 44% each, with 12% undecided.

In a 4-way race that includes the 3rd Party candidates, Biden leads Trump 47%-45%, with 2% each for the Libertarian Party's Dr. Jo Jorgensen and Green nominee Howie Hawkins.

Contrary to some observations, President Trump has not been hurt by his performance in the first presidential debate, nor his hospitalization. His current 47% rating is actually one point higher than his vote percentage in 2016.

President Trump appears to have consolidated his base among:
 
  • Whites
  • Parents
  • Conservatives
  • Men, and
  • his own party’s voters
While Joe Biden appears to be on his way to doing the same within the traditional Democrat base, his Hispanic and Black support may not be quite enough. While:
 
  • His numbers among Hispanics are respectable, the current 61%-34% split is likely well short of the 66%-67% Biden needs to win the election
  • The same holds true for among Biden's Black support:
    • His current 86% level of support is better than Zogby's August poll,
    • but still falls short of the historical 90% level for Democrat's support – especially in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina & Georgia
  • While Biden's 60%-35% lead among Young Voters is about where one would expect,
    • His position among 18-29 year-olds on Climate Change and the Environment needs to improve, where its ranked as the 2nd highest issue at 22%
Other results in Zogby/EMI Poll the include:
 
  • 31% of :likely Voters" say the country is heading in the right direction
  • Overall, the top issues in the 2020 Election are:
    • Covid-19 – 38%
    • Jobs/Economy – 34%
    • Health Care – 33%
    • Crime/Public Safety – 19%
    • Taxes/Budget – 15%
    • Immigration – 13%
    • Climate Change/Environment – 12%
    • Democrats are far more likely to select Covid-19 than Republicans – 47% to 28%
    • Republicans select the Jobs & Economy – 40% to 29% over Democrats,
    • as well as Crime & Public Safety – 24%-12%
Among voters who have voted already, or plan to vote by mail, Biden leads 61% to 36%.

Among those who intend to vote in person, Trump leads 58% to 39%.
 
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