Biden blunder follows botched Afghanistan withdrawal, Open Borders & Chinese Spy Balloon – and leads to increased U.S. Allies' concern
The leak is threatening to undermine Mr. Biden's efforts to convince U.S. allies that "America is back" – a central mission and challenge for Biden who has faced skepticism from foreign governments worldwide that fear a weakening of American leadership globally, a growing relationship between China and Russia, and continued U.S. support of Ukraine.
Some experts and Western officials warn that the Pentagon leak – which reveals the U.S. is spying on adversaries and allies alike – could erode trust and intelligence-sharing with U.S. alliances at an especially sensitive foreign policy moment in the global competition between the U.S. and China.With so many unknowns about the origins and culprit of the leak, Congressional Republicans have largely held off on attacking the Biden administration. But concerns are quickly rising over:
- Exposing how deeply the U.S. has compromised Russia's military apparatus
- How serious an impact the leak will have on Ukraine's war effort (CNN has reported that Kyiv has already altered some battle plans because of the leak,)
- Documents suggesting the U.S. is spying on Ukraine’s top military & political leaders,
- and is spying on other key military partners such as South Korea, Israel and Egypt
Egyptian officials denied claims that their military was planning to secretly produce 40,000 rockets for Russia and hide it from the West – a stunning allegation against an ally that receives billions of dollars in U.S. aid each year.
And after one of the leaked document suggested scenarios in which Israel could be pressured to provide lethal aid to Ukraine, U.S. officials were forced to reach out to their Israeli counterparts to reassure them.
When asked Monday if the fallout from the Pentagon leak had been contained, White House National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby responded, saying:
"We don't know – We truly don't know.
"There is no excuse for these documents to be in the public domain," adding that both the Department of Justice the Defense Department are leading an inter-agency effort to "get to the bottom of this."
Here are 5 Things You Need To Know About the Pentagon's Leaked Intel Documents that are Rocking U.S. Allies Amid the Ongoing Ukraine Conflict
1. The documents make both Russia & Ukraine look weak
- The leaked documents disclose a Ukrainian Air Defense System that is in urgent need for foreign assistance in order to maintain its capabilities.
- That appears to justify an effort by Russia to disclose the vulnerabilities of Ukraine’s defensive capabilities – and reduce its morale.
- The classified materials disclose sophisticated U.S. and Pentagon Intelligence on Russia's movements – and its possible future plans in Ukraine.
- The leaked information discloses a high level of infiltration of U.S. intelligence into Russia’s military operations.
2. It's still not clear who leaked the documents
Bellingcat – a website described as an independent investigative collective of researchers, investigators & citizen journalists – tried to trace the leaked documents to their original source, but the identity of the original leaker remains unknown.
- While the classified documents were replicated quickly on Twitter and other social media platforms, the original leaks reportedly occurred as early as January 2023, with following batches being release in early March.
- The first batch appears to have occurred on a Discord server called "Thug Shaker Central," which has since been erased, taking down with it all evidence of the initial leak.
- Discord is a messaging platform on which users exchange information, files and conversations on thematic groups called servers.
- Another batch of 30 documents appeared on a separate discord server called "WowMao" in early March, before eventually making their way into the anonymous image board site 4chan.
- It was also later posted onto Telegram, a popular messaging app that hosts social-media type group chats.
3. The documents are real, but some have been altered
Pentagon officials have acknowledged that the leaked files are real documents from the U.S. Department of Defense. However, several versions of the documents have come to light which show signs of alterations.
A key piece of information that has been tampered with focuses on the number of casualties suffered by both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries since the start of the war.
- U.S. estimates put the number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded at 189,500 and 223,000, and between 124,500 and 131,000 for Ukraine.
- A pro-Russian Telegram group posted the number of Russians “killed in action” at between 16,000 to 17,500, and between 61,000 to 71,500 for Ukraine.
The alteration has been referred to as a move to affect the other side's morale, by both Ukrainian officials and pro-Russia influencers, leading to further confusion over who would benefit from the leak about war casualties.
4. The documents show the U.S. spying on allies like Israel, South Korea & France
The leaks include information about the U.S. spying on South Korea by using signal intelligence. They report top aides to the Korean president showing concerns that artillery shells being sold to the U.S. by Korea would then be diverted into Ukraine, without Korea's authorization.
Another document analyzes the possibility of Israel, another U.S. ally, providing lethal aid to Ukraine, on top of its humanitarian and strategic assistance. Another report puts the Mossad – Israel's intelligence agency – behind efforts to encourage civilians to take part in recent anti-government demonstrations. The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has denied such claims.
Another document says there are French soldiers fighting in Ukraine. The claim was denied by the French defense ministry, which said the information source is not clear, and it would not "comment on documents whose source is uncertain."
5. The Biden Justice Department, as well as special unit within the Department of Defense are investigating the leaks
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has requested an all-senators briefing on the leaked documents themselves, as well as the circumstances surrounding the breach.
