Biden’s Support from Independent Voters Hits Record Low, as Democrat Support on Middle East is Divided

Biden’s Support from Independents Hits Record Low, more Americans are identifying as 'Independent' than at any other time in modern history

By Manzanita Miller

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — President Joe Biden continued to trail former President Donald Trump by several percentage points during another week's worth of polling, with the latest surveys showing Trump ahead by 4% nationally, and ahead in 5-of-6 battleground states. While Biden’s support has continued to erode within his own party, "Swing Voters" retracting their support is at the heart of the president’s plummeting polling numbers.

This comes at a time when more Americans are identifying as Independent than at any other time in modern history.

A collection of polling during the past month shows Biden losing by double-digits with young peopleminorities and Independents compared to 2020, as well as struggling with female voters in Battleground States.

Independents have been shifting away from Biden by double-digits compared to 2020, with a November CBS News/YouGov Poll showing Trump winning Independents by 10%, 54% to 44%.

This is a startling reversal from 2020 when Biden won Independents by 13%.

Another YouGov Survey found "Independents" say their financial situation would be better under Trump by 33%, and worse under Biden by 20%.

Economic issues and foreign policy issues are driving Independents away from Biden at a rapid pace.

Polling conducted by Gallup in September of this year shows 41% of Americans identify as Independent, compared to just 28% who identify as Republican and the same number who identify as Democrat. Gallup notes that typically Democrats and those who lean Democrat outnumber Republicans and and those who lean Republican by a few percentage-points – but that advantage has evaporated.

New Gallup polling paints a bleak picture for Biden, with his support from Independents plummeting 8% in the past month as conflict has escalated in the Middle East.

Biden’s approval rating has hit an all-time low of just 27% among Independents, and his approval rating across a range of issues does not break above 35%.

Independents are particularly critical of Biden’s response to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – with only 25% saying they approve of how Biden is handling the conflict.

On economic issues, just 24% of Independents approve of Biden’s performance and on foreign affairs just 28% approve.   

  • While Biden’s overall approval rating among Democrats sits at 83%,
    • his approval rating within the party falls significantly below that on various metrics.

Middle East policy – which has created divisions on the left in recent weeks – is where Biden’s numbers suffer the most among Democrats.

Biden’s approval rating on the Middle East Conflict sits at just 60%, over 20% below his overall approval rating.

Democrats also take issue with Biden on foreign affairs, giving him a 68% approval rating, a 15% difference compared to his overall approval rating.

However, Democrats give their highest marks to Biden on his handling of the war in Ukraine, with 78% of Democrats saying they approve of how Biden is handling that issue.   

Losing Independents – as several polls show Biden may very well do – could cost Biden the election. Independents represented a quarter of votes in 2020 and supported Biden by13% – but they are on track to abandon him by double-digits according to current polling.

The Biden campaign’s latest plan to pivot away from addressing economic issues – and instead attack Trump on social issues – is not likely to win them back either.

Manzanita Miller is an Associate Analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.