“If either side thought the other side would stay home this election, that's obviously not the case.”
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — Campaigns usually want their voters to cast ballots ahead of Election Day – so they can focus their Election Day Turnout effots and resources on getting more of their less enthusiastic supporters to the polls. This year, however, with Donald Trump’s encouragement Republicans are once again voting early – and flocking to the polls for in-person voting ahead of Election Day.
Its helped push the National Early Voting turnout numbers to over 20 million – breaking records in swing states such as Georgia and North Carolina.
The GOP hopes this surge of early votes will fix a problem that some blame for losing the 2020 Presidential Election – as well as a number of key 2022 Congressional Races.
In 2024, Republicans are pushing its voters to cast their ballots early – and the former president Trump is encouraging the change.
“I am telling everyone to vote early,” Trump said on a podcast last week hosted by conservative Radio Show Host Dan Bongino, who has widely disgusted early voting's impact on the 2020 Election.
Republicans seem to be responding.
- In Nevada, where Democrats for decades relied on a robust Early Vote to counter the GOP's advantage on Election Day, about 6,000 more Republicans than Democrats had actually cast early ballots this year as of Tuesday, according to Associated Press research.
- In North Carolina and Georgia, both state have reported record turnout on their first day of in-person early voting – despite the destruction caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
- And,the surge has spilled over into states that aren't competitive at the presidential level, such as South Carolina, which reported its own record when it opened early voting Monday.
James Blair, the political director for Trump's campaign, said its data shows that more of its low-propensity voters are casting ballots early, than are those who might be expected to support Kamala Harris.
“The starting point is, we’re in a strong spot,” Blair said.
While early voting data provides a set of quantifiable numbers – and indicates whether voters are registered with one of each state's political party or not – it does not reveal which candidate each voter cast their ballot for. And, the early voting turnout can change from day to day as people get to the polls to vote early.
- READ MORE: With 2 Tuesdays of Campaign Remaining, Darkness Falls on the Democrats
- If there was ever any real value to the “momentum” or "joy" or “vibes” Kamala Harris's Campaign claimed, it's quickly becoming an express elevator to hell. The latest polls have given sudden rise to a growing chorus of terrified Democrat voices — particularly in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona & Georgia.
The surge in 2020 Democrat early voting was largely a reaction to the pandemic – which skewered historic comparisons and no longer exists. And, what may seem like demographic trends in the Early Vote can disappear on Election Day once those votes are factored in.
It also is still very early in the voting process.
The last of the seven swing states, Wisconsin, kicked off its early voting Tuesday morning, and the 17.4 million voters who already have cast ballots this year represent only about 11% of the number of total ballots in the 2020 Presidential Election.
Parties can run up leads in the early vote and then see them vanish on Election Day because all their supporters have already cast ballots and the other side has not.
“The Democrats are still – as far as I can tell – banking more early votes. It's just that its less of a disadvantage for Republicans this year,” said Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who carefully tracks the early vote.
But McDonald cautioned, “We don't know yet if this is a shifting of furniture, or an added strength for Republicans.”
One thing is clear – the return to bipartisan early voting has helped bust records.
And while Republicans have improved their participation in the Mail-In Vote in several states, they likely still lag behind Democrats.
That's particularly true in the seing state of Pennsylvania – the biggest electoral prize among the seven swing states and one that does not have a traditional early in-person voting option.
Democrats there have sent in about 350,000 more mail ballots than Republicans as of Tuesday – but the GOP is making up ground by voting early in-person in most competitive states.
At Elon Musk's first solo event in support of Trump last week, he encouraged the crowd in Pennsylvania to vote early.
John Couvillon, a Louisiana pollster who usually works for the GOP and carefully tracks the early vote, noted that Democrats have dominated the early vote during recent election cycles. Their current position, Couvillon said, “is the equivalent of being down three touchdowns at halftime and thinking you can score four touchdowns in the second half.”
- ALEXANDER: Record Republican Numbers Voting Early in Battleground States Shows Trump Headed to Victory
- In Pennsylvania, Republicans have a far greater ballot-chasing effort going. In Arizona last week, an MSNBC Reporter said he couldn't find a single voter in line to cast Early Ballots who admitted voting for Kamala Harris. While the numbers may reveal how well Republicans are doing in some of the Battleground States, in Arizona, Georgia & Nevada the numbers are even more depressing for Democrats.
Democrat data analyst, Tom Bonier contends that everyone expected Republicans to return to early voting, and for the pandemic-inspired gaps to close.
“I'm impressed the Democrat numbers are as strong as they are,” he said.
The main takeaway, Bonier said, is that the high rates of voting show an enthusiastic electorate on both sides.
“If either side thought the other side would stay home this election, that's obviously not the case,” he said.
