Election 2026: California Republicans Have a Chance

By Arthur Schaper

Republicans have not held the governor's mansion in California since 2010. During the Tea Party Wave election, across the country Republicans swept into power, even in blue states--except for California. Meg Whitman, the former CEO of eBay, threw nearly $200 million at the governor's race, but she couldn't overcome the old retread Jerry Brown, who had remained in California politics decades after his prior gubernatorial term. He served as mayor of Oakland, attorney general, and then won the governor's office again. Why do Californians hate themselves so much?!

It was all downhill from there, as California Republicans slowly but surely faced a complete shutout of every corridor of power. In 2016, Donald Trump seemed like the last nail in the CAGOP coffin, since his tough talk on immigration, tariffs, and public safety worried a weakened Republican Party brass trying to moderate its mission and message. I don't blame Donald Trump. The problem is California voters, suffused with illegal aliens, purple-haired Karens running every major bureaucracy from Sacramento to San Diego, plus aggressive public sector unions and greedy left-wing non-profits calling the shots with our tax dollars.

Today, California Republicans struggle as a superminority, and their platform of common sense, sanity, and conservatism has failed every turn. We lost Congressional seats in the Trump Resurgence of 2024, and Proposition 50, if not overturned, spells doom for five more incumbent Republicans.

But a funny thing was happening on the way to Election 2026, starting with unexpected wins in the prior election cycle. Despite the 2024 Congressional losses, Republicans flipped two assembly seats in heavily Hispanic Imperial County (one of the most Democratic sections of the state) and Riverside County, which had rejected Trump in the two prior presidential elections.

Across California, the growing Hispanic minority vote is also moving to the right. This trend isn’t just emerging in rural areas, but even in urban sectors, including Los Angeles County. 

Speaking of the most populous county in the state, LA County voters fired a woke George Soros-backed district attorney and replaced him with a common-sense moderate, one who had run for CA Attorney General as a Republican in 2022. From 2021 to 2024, California voters had also successfully recalled corrupt city councilmen and a wide swath of recalcitrant school board members who had been pushing woke ideology instead of work habits and high scholastic standards. Even hopelessly woke San Francisco recalled the worst of the worst from their local school board, as well as ditching their son-of-terrorists District Attorney Chesa Boudin.

Above all, the passage of Proposition 36 made crime illegal again, especially in connection with repeat retail theft. Two prior propositions had misled California voters into thinking that they were going easy on first-time drug offenders, when the initiative turned all sorts of felonies into misdemeanors. Prop 36 proved that voters were ditching Woke for Common Sense.

Now, the California gubernatorial election is showing another incredible anomaly: two Republicans candidate are winning the Top Two spots in the latest polls: Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, and former Fox News anchor and writer Steve Hilton. 

How does this help?

California has a unique electoral system: a blanket jungle primary. The top two vote getters advance to the general election, regardless of political party. Four polls in a row have shown the two Republicans in the top spots. These results are nothing short of a miracle, and more than dope cope grift for the conservative influencer corps.

How is this happening?

Too many Democratic candidates are running to replace Gavin Newsom. The Democratic Party has splintered into different identity and interest groups, so that every interest has its own standard-bearer candidate. Former State Controller Betty Yee is angling for the Asian vote. Xavier Becerra, former congressman, state attorney general, and HHS secretary, is targeting the Hispanic vote, along with former CA Speaker and LA Mayor Alex Villaraigosa. Then there's Chief Karen Katie Porter, who wants the white, female, and single mom vote. Recently, the flatulent Bay Area Congressman (and failed Presidential candidate) Eric Swalwell has jumped into the race, capitalizing on his national hype and Silicon Valley connections.  

Normally, Democratic top brass would have forced these egos into a room and made them bow to whoever could generate the best donors, polling, and media buzz. This time, though, these Democratic candidates refuse to lose their one shot at a major statewide seat. From the governor's race, from the governor's mansion, they can plot a bid for higher office, whether the United States Senate or even the presidency, like Gavin Newsom! California Democrats know that they are the cream of the crop when it comes to progressivism. The open governor’s seat gives them a grand opportunity to grow name ID and donor power. But it's a once-in-a-lifetime shot.

In the past, the Democratic Party could force any number of candidates to sit down and wait their turn. In the last two years, the party has this edge. Katie Porter insisted on challenging US Senator Diane Feinstein even before she declined to run again, and just before she died. She ended up losing to Adam Schiff, who was propped up by most of the establishment. Schiff’s connections didn't stop long-term incumbent Congresswoman Barbara Lee from running, either.

The Democrats' ego and drive for higher office are splitting the 40 percent-plus registration of Democratic voters in the state. The Top Two Republicans can gather enough support to blow past the Democrats and take the Top Two spots. 

That dreaded outcome (for the Left) is becoming more likely every week. Lame duck California Gov. Gavin Newsom, preoccupied with pleasing different constituencies for his 2028 presidential bid, won’t endorse a successor. Democratic leaders and officials at local levels have indicated privately to the two major Republican candidates that they want a Republican to win. Even Democratic voters know that their party has ruined the state, and they should turn the reins over to another political party. 

Of course, we cannot ignore that California remains a progressive stronghold hostile to Trump. The Democrats maintain a wide supermajority in the state legislature. Even if a Republican wins the governor's mansion, the California Dems can hold veto override sessions. Then again, if two Republicans enter the top two, the Democratic voter turnout will decline precipitously. From there, more Republican candidates can flip legislative seats, and maybe even congressional seats! Perhaps Republicans may enjoy a real resurgence, especially with all the illegals leaving and all the fraud being exposed, and with a strong economy roaring into recovery for the average voter, even in California.

There is one other angle that could disrupt Republican resurgence for the long-term: the recall process. Granted, the California Democratic cabal has made it more difficult to launch recall campaigns. However, there will remain enough liberal voters, and plenty of money from corporate, racial, and union interests (including left-wing nonprofits), that Democratic party forces across the country could launch a recall.

Still, if a Republican governor can show moderation with commonsense leadership, focus on bread-and-butter issues, reform education, restore public safety, and revitalize much-needed political balance in his first two years, Governor Bianco or Hilton could discourage a recall effort.

Republicans have a chance in California. Let’s make it happen!