Voter Registration Patterns have deeper & more reliable meaning than polling
By Newt Gingrich
As the propaganda media constantly focuses on crime, immigration, Gaza, tariffs, the Epstein files, or other hot topics, there is a remarkable historic tide of change underway in America. If President Trump keeps getting things done – and the Democrats continue to be hostile Big Government Socialists – the pro-Republican registration pattern will prevail.
Seth Keshel is the leading analyst of voter registration in America. His knowledge of voter registration patterns – down to the precinct and county levels – is encyclopedic.
Keshel (right,) believes that Voter Registration Patterns have deeper and more reliable meaning than polling.In 2024, he applied his knowledge of these patterns to the presidential race.
He correctly called every one of the swing states for Donald Trump. He also predicted that New Hampshire would be close because of the drift in voter registration toward Republicans. President Trump almost carried the state, losing it to Vice President Kamala Harris by 2.8% of the vote.
He correctly called every one of the swing states for Donald Trump. He also predicted that New Hampshire would be close because of the drift in voter registration toward Republicans. President Trump almost carried the state, losing it to Vice President Kamala Harris by 2.8% of the vote.
Because Keshel was so accurate – and is continuing to monitor Voter Registration Patterns – I became intrigued with his work and insights.
In early June, Keshel reported in his newsletter, Captain K’s Corner, that Republicans had made gains in 11 Blue tates, 11 Red States, and in all seven Battleground States which had updated voter registration data.
He summarized that “out of these 29 states which have updated data (Connecticut failed the test), Democrats haven’t gained in a single state. Their party is going extinct.”
The numbers were decisive and indicated an historic shift.
“1,059,683 net registrations have swung in favor of the GOP in just 7 months,” Keshel wrote.
The numbers were decisive and indicated an historic shift.
“1,059,683 net registrations have swung in favor of the GOP in just 7 months,” Keshel wrote.
Now, despite all the Democrats’ efforts to lie about the "One Big Beautiful Bill," coverage of the Epstein scandal, anxiety about tariffs, and all the other issues that drive the Democrats to hysteria, Keshel reported this month that the registration trend toward Republicans has continued.The rise of the Big Government Socialist-radical values wing of the Democratic Party – and their constant negativity and hysteria – have driven people away from their party.
Keshel reported the shift in all but one state that registers by party. Utah was the exception. Since it already has a 39% GOP advantage, it was natural that a few more Republicans got removed than Democrats when it cleaned its voting rolls.
Consider the results of these key states from the 2024 election to August.
Florida went from 7.8% GOP advantage to 9.75. Duval County (Jacksonville) dropped from 1.9% to 1.5% Democrat advantage. Keshel pointed out that Duval is a remarkably accurate proxy for Georgia (which doesn’t keep registration by party). He said this trend bodes well for Georgia becoming more solidly Republican.
Iowa went from being plus 10.3% to being plus 10.9% Republican. Keshel considers Iowa a proxy for Wisconsin and Minnesota (which don’t register by party) and suggested both will get redder.
Pennsylvania dropped from 3.1% to 2% Democrat advantage. He noted Pennsylvania and Michigan have voted similarly since 1952.
New Hampshire’s Republican advantage grew from 4.3% to 5.1%.
The Democrat advantage in Nevada dropped from 0.5% to 0.2%. Interestingly, Keshel suggested when the rural counties finish cleaning up their voter rolls, the state may have a Republican majority in registration.
North Carolina fell from 1.3% to 0.2% Democrat advantage.
Finally, Arizona’s GOP lean rose from 6.8% to 7.4%. Keshel suggests the Copper State may soon tilt and become the next GOP stronghold.
Iowa went from being plus 10.3% to being plus 10.9% Republican. Keshel considers Iowa a proxy for Wisconsin and Minnesota (which don’t register by party) and suggested both will get redder.
Pennsylvania dropped from 3.1% to 2% Democrat advantage. He noted Pennsylvania and Michigan have voted similarly since 1952.
New Hampshire’s Republican advantage grew from 4.3% to 5.1%.
The Democrat advantage in Nevada dropped from 0.5% to 0.2%. Interestingly, Keshel suggested when the rural counties finish cleaning up their voter rolls, the state may have a Republican majority in registration.
North Carolina fell from 1.3% to 0.2% Democrat advantage.Finally, Arizona’s GOP lean rose from 6.8% to 7.4%. Keshel suggests the Copper State may soon tilt and become the next GOP stronghold.
As an example of the scale of change that is underway, consider South Texas.
- In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried South Texas in a landslide by a 19-point margin.
- In 2020, the shift to President Trump among Hispanics had begun, and Joe Biden only won by 2.6%.
- By 2024, voters were disgusted with the Democrats’ open borders and anti-law enforcement agenda and Trump carried South Texas by 13.3%.
First, President Trump is committed to real change.
- He wants to create better jobs, more affordability, and better take-home pay.
- He is committed to building a safe border and safe neighborhoods.
- He is committed to running a less expensive, more effective government.
- He has made a powerful commitment to the 250th Anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.
- He is dedicated to a powerful national security system that is focused on bringing conflicts to an end, and creating peace.
This has a clear emphasis on classic American values of freedom, prosperity, and patriotism. This is all turning out to be deeply popular with the American people.Second, the wave of Big Government Socialism with radical values (which first appeared when socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders won 43% of the vote in the 2016 Democratic primaries) has continued to drive voters away from the Democratic Party.
According to America’s New Majority Project polling, Big Government Socialism is supported by about 18% of the American people. Similarly, radical social values have about 20% support among the American people.
If President Trump keeps getting things done – and the Democrats continue to be hostile Big Government Socialists – the pro-Republican registration pattern will prevail.
Newt Gingrich served as the 50th Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1995 to 1999. Known for creating the “Contract with America” that led the Republican Party to victory in 1994, he helped create the first conservative majority in the House in 40 years. For more of his commentary and insights, visit Gingrich360.com or subscribe to the Newt’s World podcast.
