Does Trump's 3-Peat Foretell a November Victory? Trump’s voters are showing up – Biden’s are not
By J.T. Young
While pollsters may give insights into how people will vote, voters participating in a Primary Election offers hard evidence as to how they have voted.
And ten days ago in the Battleground State of Arizona's primary, former President Donald Trump continued his 2024 domination of President Joe Biden during the 2024 Primaries.
So far this year, both parties have held Primary Elections in three out of the six states that decided 2020’s Presidential Election (Arizona, Georgia & Michigan.) Trump has out-polled Biden in all three. Handily.Right now, it’s not close.
Despite both men having already sewn up their nominations, each faced some drama in Arizona’s primary. Biden faced a protest vote over his policy in the Israel–Hamas conflict. Trump still faced numerous challengers, who garnered over 20% of the Republican votes.
As in 2020, Biden won March 19th’s Arizona primary, this time gaining over 370,000 votes – beating his 2020 primary showing (in a then-crowded field) by over 110,000 votes.
However, the overall Democrat vote dropped by over 200,000 votes from its 2020 level.
In 2020, Republicans canceled their Arizona primary because Trump was the incumbent president and had the nomination locked up.
In Arizona primary, Mr. Trump won over 490,000 votes – beating former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, his closest challenger, by over 4-to-1.
Overall, in this year’s Arizona primary Republicans received roughly 620,000 votes.
Overall, in this year’s Arizona primary Republicans received roughly 620,000 votes.
- Trump outpolled Biden by almost 120,000 votes.
- He also outpolled the entire Democrat field by over 70,000 votes.
Overall, Republicans received over 200,000 more votes than Democrats.
The significance here is that in 2020’s Presidential Election, Biden beat Trump in Arizona by just over 10,000 votes.
The significance here is that in 2020’s Presidential Election, Biden beat Trump in Arizona by just over 10,000 votes.
Arizona marks the third time this year that Trump has beaten Biden in a Battleground State Primary. Despite losing by over 115,000 votes, Arizona has been the closest Biden has come to Trump in any of these three:- In Michigan, he was roughly 140,000 votes short of Trump
- In Georgia, he was over 220,000 votes short
Thus far in these three primary states, Trump has yet to lose to Biden. In total, he has outpolled Biden by over 450,000 votes – an average margin of over 150,000 votes.
Why is this so significant?
In 2020’s Presidential Election, Trump lost to Biden by:
- Roughly 150,000 votes in Michigan
- Roughly 12,000 votes in Georgia, and by
- Roughly 10,000 votes in Arizona
Although Biden won the popular vote by roughly 7 million votes – 51.3% to Trump’s 46.9% – the electoral vote was much closer: 306 to 232. The electoral votes of six states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin – proved the difference.
In 2024, those six states will account for a combined 77 electoral votes.
Because 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency – and because the states Trump defeated Biden in during 2020 have gained three electoral votes since then – Trump only needs to flip 35 electoral votes from Biden to win this November.
Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan’s combined electoral votes are 42.
In 2024, those six states will account for a combined 77 electoral votes.
Because 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency – and because the states Trump defeated Biden in during 2020 have gained three electoral votes since then – Trump only needs to flip 35 electoral votes from Biden to win this November.
Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan’s combined electoral votes are 42.National polling showing Trump leading Biden is nothing new. According to RealClearPolitics, Biden has not led Trump in its average of national polling since Sept. 10th of last year (44.5–44.3%). On March 26, RCP’s average shows Trump leading 46.6–45%. In RCP’s 5-way average, Trump’s margin is slightly larger: 2.3%.
In the battleground states, Trump’s margin is 3.6%.
These are just results in polls, however. The results in the pivotal battleground primaries – votes cast at the polls, not simple answers given in polls — are more solid. Yes, they confirm polling’s findings of a Trump lead, but they also tell us that Trump’s voters appear more motivated.
For whatever reason, Trump’s are showing up; Biden’s are not.
These are just one more indication that Biden has ground to make up. He is going to have to campaign hard in 2024 – versus hardly campaigning in 2020.
The downside there is that Biden is poor in public. Under pressure, Biden could easily wind up hurting his chances further – even as he seeks to improve them.
In other words: Things are worse for Biden than the “bad” that they now appear – and they very likely could get worse still.
J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023. His articles have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Investors’ Business Daily, The Chicago Tribune, San Francisco Chronicle, Cleveland Plain Dealer, The Washington Times, Roll Call, and The Hill.
