Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. While the Hispanic vote may have been bigger during the 2016 Presidential Election than previous elections it turns out the biggest surprise is that Hispanics provided more support for President-elect Donald Trump than expected.
Based on exit polling conducted by Edison Research:
- Hispanics favored Democrat Hillary Clinton 65 to 29 a 36 margin.
- But that was smaller than the 71-27 split President Barack Obama won in 2012 a 44 margin
- And was far smaller than the 72-21 margin former president Bill Clinton won in 1996 a 51 difference.
Hillary Clintons final percentage of Hispanic Voter support also ran counter to what polls predicted immediately prior to Election Day 2016 and which predicted far lower support for Donald Trump than actual results. Those polls included a Latino Decisions Poll conducted just before the election in 8 Swing States forecasting now-President Trumps support among Hispanics would be just 18.
After a campaign that started with now-President Trump referring to some illegal aliens as criminals calling for mass deportations and proposing a Border Wall along the Southwestern Border the final results leaves Hispanics immigration advocacy groups and polling experts scratching their heads.
Thats implausible said Alan Abramowitz an Emory University political science professor who studies public opinion and election voting behavior. Abramowitz and others had predicted that Trumps Hispanic support would be minimal.
Despite the outcome polling experts say a larger Hispanic margin for Democrat Hillary Clinton would not have been enough to swing the election.
Daniel Smith a political science professor at the University of Florida said Hispanics couldnt have offset the massive gains Trump made with white voters from Florida to North Carolina to Pennsylvania.
You cant lay this on Hispanics Smith said.
I dont think thats where the election was won or lost. It had to do with white suburban voters especially women breaking much more for Trump than anyone expected.
After pollsters sorted through the 2016 Voting Data Hispanics who voted for Trump said they paid little attention to the polls and pundits anyway.
Denise Galvez a Cuban American who co-founded Latinas for Trump said they all focused too heavily on Trumps bombastic rhetoric and ignored the quiet growing share of the Hispanic electorate that was willing to understand his platform.
I knew and acknowledged his faults she said. But everybody took him out of context.
How everybody extrapolates that he hates all Mexicans and he hates all Hispanics and he hates all immigrants is absolutely ridiculous.
Instead Galvez said Trump pushed a reasonable immigration strategy that would :
- Target Undocumented Immigrants with Criminal Records
- Find a solution for those who are working hard in the U.S. and
- FInally gain control of the ountrys borders.
For Josefina Rocabado 50 who immigrated to Miami from the Dominican Republic in 1979 Trumps economic policies were more important. The insurance company manager said she felt insulted by the Clinton campaigns brainwashing of Hispanics by suggesting those who didnt support the Democrat were betraying their roots rather than being more motivated by other issues.
Talk to me about whats happening in my house Rocabado said.
I have three kids one with special needs. In the past 8 years we went from being in the middle class to the bottom of the middle class. We need to pay bills.
Antonio Salguero 18 who was born in the U.S. to Guatemalan parents said he had reservations about Trump but thought too many Hispanics simply ignored Clintons flaws.
The first-time voter rattled off questions over the candidates handling of a private email server and her repeated lies throughout the election.
If there was a better option I wouldve voted for them Salguero said. But (Trump) seemed better than Clinton.
The Hispanic share of the national vote rose from 8 in 2004 to 10 in 2012 before increasing to 11 in 2016 according to the Pew Research Center and exit polling conducted by Edison Research.
