"The current General Election Polling actually indicates slight improvement for Trump – and a decline for Biden – among independents."
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — Donald Trump scored his biggest victory yet in yesterday’s Michigan Primary, crushing Nikki Haley by a margin of 42 points – 68% to 26%. So far Nikki Haley's spent a total of $76 million while losing badly in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, the Virgin Islands, South Carolina & Michigan – which means she's spent $3.2 million per delegate for the 24 delegates she's accrued so far.
For example, “uncommitted” defeated Joe Biden by 17% in the City of Dearborn – 57% to 40%.And Dearborn wasn't all that rare an exception.
In other key Democrat areas like Ann Arbor, the “uncommitted” vote was higher than 13%. Those likely won’t be Trump votes in November, but it signals a lack of enthusiasm among the progressive base for Joe Biden – which he'll need badly in a Battleground State he barely won in 2020.
In related news, the Super PAC promoting the independent presidential campaign of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., just announced that it has enough signatures to qualify for the ballot in two other key Battleground States, Arizona and Georgia – which Trump narrowly lost four years ago.
Why was Trump’s Michigan margin of victory bigger than in the previous races in:
- Iowa, where he defeated Haley by 32%;
- New Hampshire, where he won by 11%; and
- South Carolina, where he won by 20 points?
Because Michigan was the first time Democrat voters had something else to do – like make sure Joe Biden's embarrassment was minimalized.
Think About It
The Democrat National Committee took away Iowa’s and New Hampshire’s place as the first two contests on the party's primary calendar – but both states went ahead and held early events anyway; a weird semi-caucus in Iowa, and a write-in “primary” in New Hampshire
But there was no real election for Democrats to take part in.
Then, in South Carolina, Democrats held their first primary, but it was not on the same day as the Republican primary – i.e., no big, typical Election Day to bring out all voters, and the campaign of President Joe Biden successfully intimidated any party challengers from arising to capture the attention of Democrats there.
The result? A tiny number of South Carolina Democrats took part in the Democrat primary.
It should not have been a surprise that, given the circumstances in those three states, a number of Democrats and independents would exercise their right to vote in the Republican caucuses and primaries. They were attracting much more attention.
Their intention was to cast a vote against Trump, not a vote for any Republican – so they chose to vote for Haley, Trump’s most prominent and increasingly antagonistic opponent.
Many of Haley’s votes, writes NBC’s Steve Kornacki:
"... are likely coming from people who already cast ballots against Trump in 2016 and 2020 – and who are committed to doing so again in 2024.
"To them, these primaries amount to a bonus opportunity to cast yet another vote against Trump.”
That tendency was encouraged by the fact that there was nothing going on on the Democrat side.
BUT, that changed in Michigan, says Kornacki
In yesterday's Michigan Primary, both Republicans and Democrats held their elections, and unlike previous contests, Democrats were engaged in an actual race – whether to cast a ballot for “Uncommitted” as a way of protesting President Joe Biden’s position on the Israel-Hamas war, or not.
“Uncommitted” turned in a strong showing, with 13.3% of the total vote – which sends a strong signal to both Mr. Biden and his National Democrat friends that he has a problem. And, it's likely not just with Michigan.
As for Donald Trump and the Republicans, Kornacki and others say the Republican Primary results do not show a major problem for Trump – because the voting population for a general election is very different from a primary election.
"A dive into all the data we have on the 2024 Presidential Race shows why Trump’s poor independent (voter) numbers in the primary – and better performance in general election polls – are completely consistent with each other.
"The short answer: These are two very different groups of voters.
"For context, Trump lost the Independent Vote to President Joe Biden in 2020 by a 9-point margin, 52%-43%, per the NBC News National Exit Poll.
"So the current general election polling actually indicates slight improvement for Trump (and a decline for Biden) among independents."
Also to add to the Republican's side of the ledger, Trump's Michigan win is another step toward the end of the Republican Primaries – yes, Nikki Haley has pledged to stay in the race until next Tuesday's "Super Tuesday" elections, but she hasn’t come close to winning any contest so far, and if she were to win one of the primaries next week (which she does not predict,) she'll still be a million miles behind Trump.
Donald Trump appears to be gaining, not losing, strength.
Joe Biden is doing the opposite.
Now, as written in a Newsweek Opinion piece by Dan Perry earlier this morning, the best thought coming out of the Michigan Primary may be – Joe Biden Should Endorse Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and Step Aside.
"Anyone who views his speech at Clinton's 2016 coronation cannot fail to notice the dramatic difference (here's a lampoon on Italian TV).
"I am very sensitive to ageism, having called it one of humanity's greatest and most idiotic scourges in these very pages. But this is not ageism — it is a reasonable concern."
