Republican's Congressional Lead Increases to 7%, as Inflation Remains Top Issue for Voters


Yes... It’s Still the Economy, Stupid! 

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — With November’s crucial Mid-Term Elections now only 21 days away as of next Tuesday, inflation is still the issue voters are most concerned about and the economy remains the top issue for "Likely U.S. Voters." 

The Rasmussen Reports' latest National Telephone & Online Survey of 1,000 "Likely U.S. Voters" finds that:
  • 89% of Likely U.S. Voters are "Concerned" about inflation, including
  • 64% who are "Very Concerned" and
  • just 11% who are "Not Concerned"
The survey was conducted on October 6th and 9th, 2022, and the margin of sampling error is +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence.

Republican's Congressional Lead over Democrat's Now Stands at 7%

The 2022 Mid-Term Elections are now 25 days away as of Friday, October 14th, and Republicans have a 7% lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Survey released earlier today on the "Generic Congressional Ballot" finds that if the elections for Congress were held today:
  • 48% of "Likely U.S. Voters"would vote for the Republican Candidate, while
  • 41% would vote Democrat, while
  • 7% are not sure, and 
  • 4% would vote for some other candidate
As issues come into focus and voters make up their minds, the GOP's lead is up 3% from last week, when they led 47% to 43%.

The expansion in Republican's lead is due mainly to a 16% advantage among the all-important "Independent Voter":
  • 85% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s Congressional Candidate
  • 82% of Democrats would vote for the Democrat candidate
  • and perhaps most importantly:
    • 46% of Independent Voters say they would vote Republican, while just
    • 30% would vote Democrat and
    • 15% are undecided.
    • 9% would vote for some other candidate
Republicans have held a lead in the "Generic Congressional Ballot" survey returns for all of the 2022 year, although their lead had narrowed since mid-July when their advantage was as high as 10%.  

During the last mid-term election in October 2018, when voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats and Republicans were tied at 45% each in the "Generic Ballot" question. The margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, and Democrats 45% in the final poll – before Democrats won a slim House majority and Republicans gained seats in the Senate to maintain control of that chamber.
  • The so-called “Gender Gap” in this week's survey has widened for Republicans, with
    • 53% of men now more likely than women (43%) to prefer Republicans as Congressional Candidates, a 10% lead
      • That gap was 2% last week
  • Voters 65 and Older favor Republicans by an  18% margin – 56% to 38%
  • Voters between 40-64 favor Republicans by a 13% margin – 52% to 39%, and
  • Voters Under 40 favor Democrats by a 12% margin – 47% to 35%
Republicans also now hold strong majorities among both government employees and retirees, while private sector workers are evenly divided with 44% for Democrats and 43% for Republicans.

A year after "Critical Race Theory" and other school controversies helped Republicans to a big win in the Virginia Governor's race, education remains an important issue for most voters:
  • 77% of Likely U.S. voters believe Education Issues will be "Important" in this year’s Congressional Elections, including
  • 45% who expect it to be "Very Important" in the mid-terms.
Rasmussen Reports updates the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November. To see survey question wording, click here.

The Generic Congressional Ballot Survey of 2,500 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted October 9th-13th, 2022 and the margin of sampling error is +/-2% with a 95% level of confidence. 

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Field work for all Rasmussen Reports Surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.