Republicans Expand Lead in Congressional Poll to 5%, as FBI Raid Is Unfavorable to Independents

Inflation & Crime are Still far and away the Top Concerns for Voters

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — The 2022 Mid-Term Elections are now less than 80 days away, and Republicans continue to hold a 5% lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress. Republicans have led the "Generic Congressional Ballot" survey all year long, and the GOP lead is now 2% higher than is was last week when they led 46%-43%.

The Republican's lead is due mainly to a 9% advantage among Independent Voters (see further details below,) as the F.B.I.'s raid on former President Donald Trump’s home has damaged the FBI’s standing with Independent and Republican voters.

And, on the issues most important to American voters, there's not been any significant change all year – with Inflation and Violent Crime remaining at the top of the list.

When it comes to the #1 issue of inflation, the latest Rasmussen Reports Survey conducted on August 17th-18th finds that:
  To see survey question wording about inflation and the issues most important to American voters, click here.
  • This survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on August 17th-18th, 2022, and the margin of sampling error is +/- 2% with a 95% level of confidence.
To see survey question wording and to read Rasmussen's "‘Biden’s Gestapo’? Trump Raid Hurts Voter Trust in FBI" article, click here.
  • The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on August 15th-16th, 2022, and the margin of sampling error is +/- 2% with a 95% level of confidence. 
GOP Expands Congressional Lead to 5% in the Generic Congressional Ballot

If the elections for Congress were held today, 46% of "Likely U.S. Voters" would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat, said the latest Rasmussen Reports National Survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters conducted August 14th-18th, 2022.

Just 4% would vote for some other candidate, while 8% are not sure.

In August 2018, prior to voters handing Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a seven point 48% to 41% advantage in the "Generic Ballot" question.

Interestingly, Republicans lead by eight points, 45%-37%, among voters with incomes below $30,000 a year, while Democrats have an 11-point advantage, 53% to 42%, among voters with annual incomes above $200,000.
  • To see survey question wording, click here. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republican Voters say they would vote for their own party’s Congressional Candidate, while 82% of Democrats would vote for the Democrat candidate.
Among "Independent Voters" not affiliated with either major party:
  • 41% would vote Republican
  • 30% would vote Democrat, while
  • 9% would vote for some other candidate and
  • 20% are undecided
The so-called “gender gap” is slightly wider in the latest findings, with 51% of men now eight points more likely than women voters – at 43% – to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was seven points last week.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of white voters, 26% of black voters, and 44% of other minority voters would vote Republican if the election were held today. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of white voters, 58% of black voters, and 41% of other minorities would vote Democrat.
  • Voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans by a14% margin – 51% to 37%
  • Voters 65 and older favor the GOP by a12% margin – 52% to 40%
  • Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 14% margin – 49% to 35%
Retirees support Republicans over Democrats by a 12% margin, 51% to 39%, and government employees favor Democrats by a 15% margin.

Rasmussen Reports will be updating its Generic Congressional Ballot findings every Friday morning at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time until the mid-term elections in November.

‘Biden’s Gestapo’? Trump Raid Hurts Voter Trust in FBI & U.S. Dept. of Justice

Last week’s raid by the Federal Bureau of Investigation on former President Donald Trump’s home has damaged the FBI’s standing with the all-important Independent voters.
  • 44% of Likely U.S. voters say the FBI raid on Trump’s Florida home made them trust the FBI less, compared to
  • 29% who say it made them trust the FBI more
  • 23% say the Trump raid did not make much difference in their trust of the FBI
Fifteen percent (15%) of voters believe FBI Director Christopher Wray is better than most of those who held the job before him, while twice as many (30%) think Wray is worse than most of his predecessors. Thirty-eight percent (38%) think Wray’s performance is about the same as most previous FBI directors, and another 18% are not sure.

Not surprisingly, approval of the FBI, including its raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, is highest among Democrats:
  • 75% of Democrats now have a favorable opinion of the FBI, up from 63% in December.
  • Only 30% of Republicans now view the FBI favorably, down from 38% in December;
    • about half, 49% of GOP voters, now have a Very Unfavorable impression of the FBI.
  • Among voters not affiliated with either major party,
    • 50% view the FBI unfavorably, and
    • 45% have a favorable impression
More voters still have a negative perception of Attorney General Merrick Garland than view him favorably, and don’t think he’s doing a better job than his predecessors.
  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or on Facebook. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.