Most Generic Congressional Ballot Polling assumes Democrats will have a turnout advantage in November.
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. An analysis by Harry Enten earlier this year noted that Republicans generally have a turnout advantage in mid-term elections but the size of the advantage depends on who controls the White House.
Two weeks ago Republicans and Democrats were dead even for the first time since May in the
Generic Congressional Ballot Polling. Democrats regained
a five-point lead last week. In early July they led by eight
their largest lead since January.
When Republican presidents Ronald Reagan George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush were in office the GOP advantage was just a single percentage point.
In other words the share of voters who identified as Republican topped the share who identified as Democratic by 1.
1
Under Democratic presidents Jimmy Carter Bill Clinton and Barack Obama the GOP turnout advantage averaged 5.
There are many possible explanations for this difference.
- One is that voters favoring the party out of power typically are more enthusiastic about voting.
- Another is that some people who formerly identified with the presidents party grow disenchanted and identify as independents.
A more recent analysis by Enten suggests that polls may be underestimating Democratic support.
2 He cites
a series of Monmouth University Polls suggesting that Democrats may be doing better in likely voter polls than in polls of registered voters.
It is difficult to know how much of an impact this might have because most recent
Generic Congressional Ballot Polling already assumes that Democrats will have a turnout advantage in November.
3
Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Wednesdays at 8:30 a.m. Eastern until the mid-term elections in November. Democrats maintain their lead over Republicans on this weeks Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot.
The latest Rasmussen telephone and online survey finds that:
- 46 of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today.
- 42 would opt for the Republican.
- 4 prefer some other candidate and
- 8 are undecided.
- To see survey question wording click here.
A clearer picture of the midterms will develop as more likely voter polling becomes available closer to the November 6th elections.
