Overall registration figures have skewed in favor of Republicans since the 2008 election in the eight states reviewed by POLITICO. Republicans credit Trump for some of their continued 2016 momentum in the East.
The atmospherics of voter registration trends in those states do not point to a strong Democratic year so thats one negative the Trump campaign does not have to deal with at this point" said Louisiana pollster John Couvillon who added that spikes in registration can add a point or two to a candidates vote share in a close race.
The voter registration data Im seeing does not support the idea of a surge in Democratic voter enthusiasm."
In Pennsylvania where Democrats registration advantage has fallen by a fifth since the 2012 election to 915000 voters more than 85000 former Democrats have become Republicans this year almost three times the number of voters who made the opposite switch. The party-switching has been especially lopsided in Pennsylvania counties in the southwest region coal country and the northeast which includes Scranton.Megan Sweeney communications director for the state Republican Party and Charlie Gerow a Republican strategist based in Harrisburg said the party-switching was a mix of push and pull factors.
Certainly part of it is Trump-motivated" Gerow said. My view is that a lot more of it is motivated by the disgust that many Democrats have for the administration."
In North Carolina Democrats voter registration advantage shrunk by 44000 between June 2015 and May 2016 more than twice the rate it fell at during that period last cycle. As of Aug. 13 the Democratic advantage had dwindled to 641000.
And while the picture in North Carolina is complicated by the rise of unaffiliated voters even more striking than Democrats shrinking registration advantage over Republicans is the influx of new residents into the state who do not register with either party but may take a shine to Trump. The number of independents has surged almost 40 since 2008 from roughly 1.4 million to more than 1.9 million.
During that period the Republican rolls have remained essentially static and Democrats have lost about 200000 voters.
Dallas Woodhouse executive director of the North Carolina Republican Party pointed out that Republicans new registrations in the state had more than doubled since last cycle. Weve just had a steady stream of people who are clearly of an age that have well been eligible to vote for a number of years" he said. I attribute a lot of that to Trump."
More concerning for Democrats should be Florida where the partys registration advantage has shrunk to 259000 voters less than half the partys edge during the 2012 election.
Florida like North Carolina has seen a surge in independent voter registrations in recent years but in a crucial swing state with a large and growing minority population the shrinking advantage is nonetheless disappointing.
So far this year Florida Republicans have added close to 70000 more voters to their rolls than Democrats have. That change especially when youre talking about a state (like Florida) that Obama carried by less than 100000 votes last time could be significant" said Couvillon the Louisiana pollster.The strength of Trumps ground operation in the primaries varied wildly from state to state but in Florida under the direction of former Rick Scott aide Karen Giorno his campaign has taken credit for registering 35000 new Republicans and bringing 5000 independents and Democrats into the party.
In Iowa a swing state where Democrats lost their entire 100000-active-voter edge between the 2008 and 2012 elections Democrats have seen their position continue to erode though more slowly this cycle.
Trump has delegated the bulk of the voter registration effort to the Republican National Committee. Republicans and right-leaning groups have been working to catch up to the lefts advantage in mobilizing new registrants achieved largely by targeting minorities and students.
But anecdotal evidence reveals Trump is attracting newcomers motivated both to vote for and against him.
Even though both sides are instituting and working voter registration drive programs unaffiliateds continue to outpace both of those efforts. Thats whats going to make 2016 a very interesting year" said Paul Shumaker a veteran Republican strategist.
Three other states considered battlegrounds Wisconsin Michigan and Virginia do not register voters by party.
Out west Republicans have less to cheer for. In Colorado Democrats gained 39000 more voters than Republican between July 2015 and May 2016 and have now gained a slight edge in a state where Republicans had outnumbered Democrats in recent years. Between May 1 and Aug. 1 the Democratic edge has more than doubled from 6600 to 14313 voters.
In Nevada Democrats padded their registration advantage among active voters by more than 9000 additional voters between July 2015 and this May another marked departure from the comparable period last cycle when their advantage shrunk by 29000 voters. Since May that advantage has continued to grow.
And the trend is the same across much of the West.
In New Mexico a battleground in many recent cycles as well as Oregon and California two reliably blue states that Trump has suggested he would contest this fall Democrats have also grown their advantages since the beginning of this year.
Current trends also threaten to put Arizona seriously in play. Despite the enthusiasm for Trump in the border state whose primary he won in a landslide Democrats added 13600 more active voters than Republicans added between July 2015 and this May. That as well as the states high Latino population and the growth of independent voters in the state in recent years give Democrats reason to hope they can flip it.
Groups that register voters under nonprofit auspices are forbidden from pushing one party or another but in Arizona where the state Democratic Party has a goal of registering 100000 voters party field staffers have found the right way to frame the choice for new voters unsure whether to become Democrats or Republicans. The volunteers ask the new voters whether they tend to agree more with a local Democratic lawmaker Rep. Ral Grijalva in Tucson Reps. Kyrsten Sinema or Ruben Gallego in Tempe or with Donald Trump. More often than not we register Democrats with that line said a person involved with the registration drive.
Meanwhile a number of registration drives aimed at Latinos have been slow getting off the blocks but are now gearing up making conservatives wary about what the next two months might hold.
Jack St. Martin the president of Engage Nevada a conservative voter registration group said hes bracing for tens of thousands of new registrations from Democratic and liberal groups in the state. Make no mistake" he said. If 2008 and 2012 are any indication a voter registration tsunami is coming.
