“On balance, however, the Texas economy appears poised for continued growth. Our economic outlook is cautiously optimistic, and this estimate reflects that forecast.”
Texas Insider Report: AUSTIN, Texas – Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar today provided an estimate of revenue available for the 87th Legislature, First Called Session, and now projects 2022-23 revenue available for general-purpose spending to be $123.02 billion. Hegar projects a 2022-23 ending balance in General Revenue-Related (GR-R) funds of $7.85 billion.
As state leadership prepares for a special session of the 87th Legislature, Hegar said the estimate is based on surging revenue collections, savings from state agency budget reductions during the recently gaveled Regular Session of the 87th Legislature, and the replacement of eligible GR-R appropriations with federal relief funds.
Hegar projects 2020-21 revenue available for general-purpose spending to be $116.13 billion and the fiscal 2021 ending balance in GR-R funds to be $5.01 billion.
“The Texas economy rebounded strongly during the spring as vaccination rates increased and the economy opened more fully, and we remain optimistic about growth in the near term as the state’s economy continues to return to pre-pandemic patterns,” Hegar said. “There remain reasons to expect strong revenue collections in the coming months. We have seen exceptionally strong sales tax collections despite remittances from oil- and gas-related industry sectors remaining significantly below pre-pandemic levels. An increase in oil field activity resulting from the recent rise in oil prices could support continued sales tax growth. And personal savings remain elevated, providing potential support for continued strength in consumer spending.
“Rising case counts tied to the Delta or other coronavirus variants in Texas, the U.S. or elsewhere could throttle economic growth, and as always, energy prices remain inherently difficult to predict,” Hegar said. “On balance, however, the Texas economy appears poised for continued growth. Our economic outlook is cautiously optimistic, and this estimate reflects that forecast.”
The Comptroller’s office is expected to transfer $1.4 billion each to the State Highway Fund and Economic Stabilization Fund in fiscal 2022 and another $1.88 billion each in fiscal 2023. After accounting for appropriations made from the Economic Stabilization Fund by the 87th Legislature, Hegar said he now expects its balance to be $12 billion at the end of the 2022-23 biennium.
The revenue estimate for the First Called Session is available on the Comptroller's website.