SCHLICHTER: Senate Races Set Up Dems for Some Delicious Agony

By Kurt Schlichter
 
With the spectacle of kaiju candidates Ronzilla and King Don flattening Tokyo as they battle it out for the Republican Presidential Nomination, it's no surprise that the Senate races are getting short-shrift. But don’t overlook them – look the hell out of them. These are hugely important because a Senate majority provides a critical bulwark – not the sissy dork kind but the real kind – against total Dem dominance if we lose our razor-thin House majority and if we nominate a presidential candidate who can’t get it done in the general.

We have a very good map this cycle – we can’t blow it again.

Let’s talk about the presidential nominee thing for a second, because it will be important. If we nominate Donald Trump, every Democrat invertebrate is going to come crawling out of his/her/xir libhole to vote against him. Nothing motivates these weasels like The Donald. This applies even if that crusty, senile old pervert with the popularity of chlamydia is on the ticket. Sure, Democrat voters understand that Biden is in a persistent vegetative state – maybe he should borrow some of Hunter’s blow to liven things up – but they hate Trump more.

Sadly, the same is true of some Republicans who will not vote for The Big T regardless – they should vote for the nominee regardless, but people are not always rational. So, in the Senate races, if Trump is on the ticket, it’s going to matter a lot. You don’t have to like that reality, but a reality it is.
 
Also, no discussion of the GOP Senate will be complete without talking about Mitch McConnell. Love him, hate him, whatever – he was the dominant force in the Senate for years, and now…where did he go? We barely hear from him. We know he got badly hurt recently, and while he’s back, he’s definitely out of the limelight.

You can be sure he will be behind the scenes, including raising money. 

Let’s look at the key Senate races and understand that if the Republicans are smart, they can get the two seats we need to retake the majority. But then, remember that they are Republicans.

West Virginia: Joe Manchin could not be more toast if he were made of Wonderbread and smeared with butter. A Dem in WV is an anomaly that simply will not endure. There’s a good chance Joe does not even run and instead takes the nod from the No Labels geeks or does something else to escape the coming humiliation. There is no needle he can thread that saves his seat in 2024. This is a lock for the GOP.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown is a weird communist doofus who my home state has inexplicably elected several times, even though it has been getting consistently redder over the years. The idea of a younger, less-virile Bernie Sanders representing Ohio is bizarre, and this cycle, it is time to send him to where fired pinkos go. Trump will not hurt the GOP here, but the impeachment issue will hurt Brown since Brown holds a fellow Democrat countable for his crimes. I like Bernie Moreno here, but it will be a big primary because the GOP smells blood. This is a likely win for the GOP.

Montana: Trump’s endorsement – or even his being on the ballot –  might help here. Jon Tester, who pretends to be a common-sense moderate at home but does commie puppy play with his hard-left Dem masters in DC, is running again. He’s the candidate who is most super-screwed if Kevin McCarthy can get the impeachment done. It will matter in Montana if the crew-cut comm-Symp who voted to impeach Trump gives Biden a “Get Out of Getting Out of the White House” free card. The problem for the Republicans in Montana is, as usual, Republicans. It is unclear who will run for the seat. The establishment is trying to get a self-funder in. That’s always risky, and even when they get in, self-funders are often soft. Matt Rosedale, who is kind of obnoxious, is the other big name, but he has already failed one test against Tester. Testers should be easy pickings, but leave it to the GOP to make the easy win hard. This is a toss-up for the GOP, one we could very easily blow.

Indiana: I was not even going to mention this race since Rep. Jim Banks has it sewed up, but just the other day, some self-funder egg magnate named John Rust made noise about jumping in. This literal RINO, when he even bothers voting in primaries, often votes Democrats – it’s unclear if he even identifies as a Republican, even though that’s the party he’s claiming to be in this week. Apparently, Rust thinks there’s some untapped groundswell of Hoosier support for foregoing a proven winner like Banks and instead embracing a narcissistic doofus with a track record of backing pinkos. Banks has the endorsement of Trump and a bunch of senators we like, as well as, presumably, the poultry community, over Eggboy. If this latest rich guy with dreams of political glory is determined to waste his money, so be it. But Indiana is going to elect a real conservative in Jim Banks even if this scrambled fraud decides to jump into the frying pan. This is a lock for the GOP.

Pennsylvania: The Democrat running this year is not the brain-damaged ogre. It’s Bob Casey Jr., who used to pretend to be moderate but figures he no longer needs to pretend. His vote for Biden in the impeachment will be irrelevant. Suppose you are willing to elect a semi-ambulatory human bratwurst like Fetterman. In that case, you are not voting against someone for hi-fiving Chi-com operatives as they hand President Grafto a sack with a dollar sign on it. We need a strong nominee, but PA tends to pick people who are DOA. There is speculation that Dr. Oz might run again. He’s a nice guy, but he needs to not. I like David McCormick, a fellow Gulf War vet with the dough and the smarts to give it a good run. Also, if Trump is on the ticket, that will hurt us badly. This is tough for the GOP and will be even tougher if we nominate another weak candidate.

Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema is now an independent, which means she’s a Democrat who the party is mad at but not mad enough not to caucus with. She is being primaried by a flat-out communist, but her pseudo-centrism – she always comes in for the win when the Dems need her – has served her well. Expect her to be the de facto, if not facto, Dem nominee. 

We need to beat her, but can we? Candidates matter, and Arizonans elected a bunch of Republican congresspeople last time, so the votes are there. They just refused to elect the other Republicans on the ballot. I like Kari Lake, but if she runs and gets nominated, we’re nearly certain to lose. Trump will hurt the GOP if he is on the ticket – like in Georgia, he has simply burned too many bridges with the party rank-and-file. 

Oh, and there are going to be more election shenanigans under the Dem administration. But luckily, Trump’s pick for GOP chair Ronna McDaniel is on the case and is certain to be just as effective in 2024 as she was in 2020 and 2022. So, The GOP can probably write off Arizona.

Nevada: What a heartbreaker. Nevada has these Democrat mediocrities as senators and we keep losing to them, barely. Adam Laxalt does not seem to be running again – he was evidence that you can have a good candidate and still lose – and it is unclear who might be able to take on and win whoever the hell the current Nevada senator is. She can freely vote to exonerate the corrupt PINO; the Democrat machine is beyond questions of mere policy or morality. Nevada is not looking good; this is a likely lose.

Wisconsin: Noted middle-aged wine woman Tammy Baldwin is the Democrat incumbent and Congressman Mike Gallagher took a pass on running. It’s unclear who will run – likely some self-funding rich guy who will get bulldozed into defeat. Sad! Wisconsin is winnable, but you can’t beat somebody with nobody. Don’t hold out much hope here; this is another likely loss.

Utah: This state is not going Democrat, but we still need to win it back for the Republicans. I want Mitt Romney to be not only beaten but broken. I want him handed a giant humiliation sandwich and to watch him take a bite. He's a smug, narcissistic trash who screwed over Mike Lee, Donald Trump, and everyone else he has ever dealt with. But this is Utah, and Utah people are weird Republicans. 

The bottom line is we are likely to get two more seats if we do not blow one of our holds. But again, these are Republicans – don’t ever underestimate the GOP’s ability to screw-up a sure thing.

Kurt Schlicter is a partner at a growing Los Angeles trial law firm, a retired Army Infantry colonel with a masters in Strategic Studies from the United States Army War College, and a former stand-up comic. Follow him on Twitter @KurtSchlichter.