TODAY's POLL: 'Likely Voters' Now Favor Republicans by 13% Margin, 51%-38% Over Democrats says Rasmussen


Huge 20% preference among "Independent Voters" would choose Republican over Democrat by a 48%-26%

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — Shocked by the rapidly increasing levels of inflation, and fearing the repercussions of President Biden's and Congress's "Re-Making America as we know it" policies, "Likely U.S. Voters" now favor Republicans over Democrats in the 2022 Midterm Elections by a historic 51%-38% margin, says a just released Rasmussen Reports Survey – prompting predictions of the largest gain in House seats in the modern voting era.

Perhaps most suprisingly – and surely concerning for Democrats and the Biden White House, not to mention Democrat Members of Congress up for re-election – is a huge 20% gap among unaffiliated "Independent Voters," by a 48%-26% margin, who would choose a Republican over a Democrat .
  The 13% edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 Midterm Campaign, due to an increase in GOP intensity and a wider Republican advantage among unaffiliated "Independent Voters."
 
  • While 89% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s candidate,
  • only 77% of Democrats would vote for the Democrat candidate.
  • Among non-affiliated Independent Voters:
    • 48% would vote Republican, and
    • 26% would vote Democrats.
    • 17% were undecided.
In January 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a 45% to 37% advantage in the Generic Congressional Ballot !uestion. (To see survey question wording, CLICK HERE.)

Citing the winning formula used by Virginia Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin, Newt Gingrich – who rode an earlier GOP wave to the House Speakership in 1994 – wrote on November 5th
 
“I believe an immediate, consistent, and effective Republican application of the lessons of 2021 could lead to a 40 to 70 seat gain in the House, at least a four-seat gain in the Senate, and gains in governorships, state legislatures, and local offices – including school boards next year.”

Gingrich has now upped his 2022 Election prediction to a 40-70 seat GOP gain, which would top the 63-seat gain by Republicans in 2010 – the height of the Tea Party movement and the highest for both parties since 1948.

What's more, former President Donald Trump has stepped up his endorsement of candidates – and despite general newscoverage to the contrary, has a winning record in elections that he has endorsed candidates in.

He is also quickly helping to nationalize the 2022 midterm elections as a vote on Biden's performance.

Republicans expect that as the polling settles in among House Democrats, older members will retire rather than face a tough election and loss.
 
“Think we are going to see a wave between now and before Christmas,” said one GOP campaign official.

The new data and retirements are driven in part by poor polling for Biden, Congressional Democrat's insistance on pushing their Tax & Spend plans, which land as inflation and supply chain concerns are surging.

A memo from the National Republican Campaign Committee, for example, showed weak support for the president’s “Build Back Better” plan to spend $1.75 trillion on social programs. The survey detailed in that memo detailed why voters are more focused on the economy and immigration issues – and favor GOP policies over Biden’s.
 
“Among these economy-focused voters, a generic Republican leads a generic Democrat by 58%-29%, or a 2:1 margin.

"When it comes to border security, Republicans hold an astonishing 83% advantage, 87% Republican to 4% Democrat,” said the memo. (Posted here below.)




To:         Interested Parties
From:    Rob Autry, Meeting Street Research; David Kanevsky, 3D Strategic Research; Patrick Lanne, Public Opinion Strategies; B.J. Martino and Dave Sackett, The Tarrance Group
Re:         NRCC November Battleground Congressional District Survey
Date:     November 16, 2021

The NRCC’s November battleground survey shows Democrats’ big government tax and spending proposal is already underwater with voters.

Vulnerable Democrats who vote for the House version of "Build Back Better" will be on record supporting the politically toxic policies contained within the bill, whether it passes the Senate or not.

Additionally, the survey confirmed several trends found in our October battleground polling and demonstrated in recentelectoral results:
 
•  Voters trust Republicans by an overwhelming margin on the issues most important to them.
•  Joe Biden is historically unpopular.
•  Republicans lead on the generic ballot.

1.  Build Back Better (BBB) is already unpopular with voters and becomes more unpopular as voters learn aboutthe damaging policies within the package.
 
•  When asked “would you say you support or oppose President Biden’s new spending package also known as BuildBack Better,” a plurality (46%) say they are opposed, and only 39% support.
•  Independents are a net 18-points opposed to BBB, 49% opposed to 31% support.
•  Undecided voters on the generic ballot oppose BBB by a 14-point margin, 39% opposed to 25% support.
•  Voters concerned about the economy are 59% opposed, with only 27% supporting BBB.
•  After hearing a series of informative messages related to policies within BBB, opposition reaches 57% with only37% supporting.

2.  If Democrats vote for Build Back Better, they will have to defend its politically toxic policies which penalizehard working families to reward liberal elites and those who entered the country illegally.
 
•  76% of voters in battleground districts say they are more likely to oppose BBB knowing that it imposes a natural gas tax that will “increase home heating costs, electricity rates, and raise gas prices.”
•  77% of voters in battleground districts are less likely to vote for a Democrat who “votes to give an $80,000 tax break to wealthy homeowners in New York, New Jersey, and California, a move that would cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and overwhelmingly benefit the wealthy, not the middle class.”
•  76% of voters in battleground districts oppose the package’s proposal “giving $3,600 a year to illegal immigrantsfor every child they bring into America or give birth to after arriving.”
 
(Continued...)


Battleground Congressional District Survey                                                                                  November 16, 2021
NRCC                                                                                                                                                                        Page 2

 
•  71% of voters in battleground districts are less likely to vote for a Democrat who votes “to increase IRS audits of taxpayers, by hiring 87,000 new agents to look through the bank accounts of every American earning or spending more than $600 per year in order to make sure they are paying enough taxes, disproportionally affecting small business owners.”
 
3.  Republicans continue to have a decisive advantage on the issues most important to voters.
 
•  Voters in battleground districts say President Biden and Congress should focus on: border security (16%), jobsand the economy (15%), and inflation/cost of living (13%). These were the only three issues to register in the double-digits.
•  When combining the economic concerns most important to voters (jobs and economy, inflation/cost of living, aswell as government spending and the national debt), we find 37% of voters are focused on issues related to theeconomy.
•  Among these economy-focused voters, a generic Republican leads a generic Democrat by a 2:1 margin (58%-29%).
•  When it comes to border security, Republicans hold an astonishing 83-point advantage, 87% Republican to 4%Democrat.

4.  In addition to his low approval ratings, Joe Biden suffers from an astonishing lack of enthusiasm from his ownbase.
 
•  President Biden’s job approval is 42% among voters in battleground districts, while a 52% majority disapprove ofthe job he is doing.
•  Just 20% of voters strongly approve of Joe Biden, while more than double that amount (43%) stronglydisapprove.
•  While 85% of Democrats approve of the job Biden is doing, only 43% say they strongly approve. Meanwhile,90% of Republicans disapprove with 82% strongly disapproving.
•  Independents disapprove of Joe Biden by a 26-point margin (31% approve to 57% disapprove).
•  Among these independent voters only 10% strongly approve of Biden, while 45% strongly disapprove.

5.  The generic ballot advantage for Republicans in these battleground districts is real and growing.
 
•  Voters in battleground districts prefer a Republican candidate over a Democrat candidate by four points (45% to41%), a net increase of seven points since the start of the year.
•  In battleground districts, a generic Republican candidate is leading a generic Democrat candidate withindependent voters by 11-points, 37% to 26%.

This survey was conducted November 6-10, 2021 among N=1,000 voters across 85 Battleground Congressional Districts, with 60% of the interviews conducted via cell phone, 20% via landline and 20% online
 
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