NY Times-Siena Poll shows Trump leading on Gender Gap, Economy, Immigration-Border & Ukraine-Russia War
By Robert Romano
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — Former President Donald Trump has gained an edge over Kamala Harris across three crucial swing states according to the latest New York Times-Siena College Poll of "Likely Voters" conducted between September 17th and 21st. And, voters across the Sun Belt say that Donald Trump improved their lives when he was president – and they worry that a Kamala Harris White House would not.
In the first New York Times-Siena Poll taken since the Sept. 10th Debate between the two candidates, Mr. Trump has gained a lead in Arizona, and remains ahead in Georgia – two states that he narrowly lost to President Biden in 2020.:
- Trump up 50%-45% in Arizona, and
- 49%-45% in Georgia, two states that President Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020.
- In Georgia, Mr. Trump lost to Joe Biden by just under 12,000 votes in 2020.
- In North Carolina, which has voted Republican for over a decade, Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49%-47%.
The results flip the Times-Siena polling conducted in August in Arizona and North Carolina – which showed Harris slightly ahead by the same margins Trump now leads – while he remained ahead in Georgia.On Labor Day, polling averages were even narrower in all three states.
The latest New York Times-Siena Poll shows the national race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump to be tied both in the two-candidate race, 47% to 47%, and in the multi-candidate poll that includes Jill Stein, Chase Oliver and Cornell West, 46% to 46%.
The last time a Republican won both nationally and in the Electoral College was in 2004 when George W. Bush was reelected.
If Trump wins these states as this polling suggests, he’d be on a path to 262 electoral votes, meaning he’d only have to take one of the blue-wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin to win the White House.
Among the "Likely" Arizona voters surveyed, the former president scored his most stunning reversal in any of the three states, taking what was a 5-point Harris lead in August – and turning it into a 5-point lead of his own, 50% to 45%.
Arizona, which Mr. Biden won by just 10,400 votes in 2020, now presents a challenge for the Harris campaign. Since the Times-Siena poll there in August showed Ms. Harris leading by five percentage points. Latino voters, in particular, appear to have moved away from her, though a significant number – 10% – said they were now undecided.
In Georgia, Trump led by 4% in a two-person race last month, and he holds the same lead among 682 likely voters, 49% to 45%.
A whopping 70% of white voters back Trump in the Peach State, including 78% of whites who did not go to college. Trump also has 74% in North Georgia, his strongest geographical area.
And the poll found few of the former president’s 2020 voters have buyers’ remorse. Trump is on track to get 97% of them – and leads Harris by 12 points with people who didn’t vote in the last presidential election.
Turning to the Tar Heel State of North Carolina, Trump has inverted what was a 2-point Harris lead, with 60% support from white voters, 60% support from the Charlotte suburbs, and 66% backing in the western part of the state – driving his 49% to Harris’ 47%.
Trump also is ahead 49% to 42% in North Carolina with those who did not vote in 2020.
- READ MORE: Poll Finds Trump Shows Signs of Strength in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina - The New York Times
- In a shift from a Times-Siena survey last month, Trump now leads in three Sun Belt battleground states. Nate Cohn writes "What’s Behind Trump’s Best Poll Results in Weeks"
Election forecaster Nate Silver’s latest model shows that if the popular vote is tied, or has Harris up by less than 1 point, Trump has an 89% chance of winning. If Trump were to win the popular vote narrowly, his chances of winning rise to 97.6%.
That makes tracking the National Polls still important as a method of taking the nation’s temperature, even though the official race still comes down to the Electoral College.
One factor that could be playing significantly in 2024, as it did in 2016, is the gender gap – wherein Trump leads men slightly more than Harris leads among women:
- Trump gets 52% of men to Harris’ 39%, a 13-point lead, and
- Harris gets 53% of women to Trump’s 41%, a 12-point lead.
- But there’s more women than men, and so the race is tied.
That doesn’t necessarily make 2024 a battle of the sexes per se, as in recent decades demographically, although analysts say the political parties have tended this way with Democrats leading among women and Republicans leading among men.
Democrats tend to win when they can neutralize Republicans’ advantage among men even slightly, and vice versa for Republicans. Or in Trump’s case, by winning the gender gap outright.
On issues, the poll is also very interesting, especially since this was taken in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 10th debate between Trump and Harris.
On who would handle the economy better – consistently the top issue polled this election cycle with inflation still hurting U.S. households incomes and persistantly not keeping up, as well as unemployment up by 1.4 million since Dec. 2022:
- Trump leads Harris 54% to 41%,
- including 60% to 34% among men,
- and even 49% to 47% among women.
Trump also leads every single age group on the economy:
- 56% to 42% among 65-years-old-and-older,
- 54% to 41% among 45-to-64-year-olds,
- 53% to 43% among 30-to-44-year-olds,
- and even 46% to 43% among 18-to-29-year-olds.
On immigration, Trump also leads, this time 54% to 42% – with Trump leading men and all age groups 30-years-old-and-older, while Harris leads women slightly and among 18-to-29-year-olds.
And on the Ukraine-Russia war, Trump leads 51% to 43% with his peace plan proposal, while Harris wants to keep fighting the war.
Here again, Trump leads among men and Harris has a slight lead among women, and Trump leads all age groups 30-years-old-and-older.
The only issues Harris leads on are: abortion, 54% to 41%, and “democracy”, 50% to 46%.
As for which candidate would bring a major change, Trump leads overwhelmingly:
with 49% saying major change,- 10% saying minor change, and
- 38% saying more of the same.
- Only 25% think Harris would bring a major change,
- 20% say minor change, and
- 52% saying more of the same.
This definitely shows voters are treating Harris as the incumbent – whereas Trump is selling that major reforms are needed rather successfully, which an opposition candidate absolutely needs to oust an incumbent.
If it’s a change election, that could bode very well for Trump, who has a slight lead among independents in this poll, 46% to 44%.
Also, if the election comes down the economy, immigration and the war in Europe, it could also be favorable for Trump.
That’s the current state of the race post-debate – and by all indications, it could remain so down the stretch.
New York Times-Siena College State-by-State Polls of "Likely Voters" were conducted Sept. 17th-21st, surveying 713 voters in Arizona, 682 voters in Georgia, and 682 voters in North Carolina. The polls have margins of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, +/- 4.6 percentage points in Georgia, and +/- 4.2 percentage points in North Carolina. (View New York Times-Siena Poll Cross-Tabs here.)
