Trump shows fresh signs of momentum, as Harris faces growing questions from Democrats about Final Stretch strategy
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — While Democrats are holding out hope that Kamala Harris might still be able to turn her campaign around amid growing concerns – fueled by and confirmed by recent polling trends – evidence is mounting that Donald Trump has the momentum going in the final 10-day stretch of the 2024 Presidential Race.
Donald Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Harris in the latest update of The Economist's Election Forecast – marking the first time in two months that the former president has led the Presidential Race – while Harris' decline mirrors a broader trend seen in other election forecasts.Also for the first time, as of Sunday the situation in the battleground states led the DecisionDesk HQ/The Hill Election Forecast to give Trump a 52% chance of defeating Harris to win the presidency, while Harris has a 48% chance.
- The shift in election forecast coincides with Trump’s improved polling averages in Wisconsin & Michigan – two battleground states that previously leaned slightly toward Harris.
- Trump already had a slim advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
- Of the seven key "Swing States" seen as determining the election's outcome, Pennsylvania is alone in still favoring Harris in its polling average.
According to the model's analysis, the shift has "nudged the forecast towards him in every state" while still indicating a highly competitive election.
Trump's rise comes at the expense of Harris, whose chances have fallen to 45%, down from 51% just a week prior.
The Democrat nominee held no campaign rallies on either Tuesday or Wednesday, focusing instead on two sit-down interviews with NBC News and Telemundo, as well as a CNN "Town Hall Event." (See details below.)
And on Friday she will visit Texas – a Red State she has no realistic chance of winning.
Her campaign has said Harris will use the trip to focus on the Lone Star State’s restrictive abortion laws, but spending what precious time is left with a trip to the safest of GOP Red States inside of the final two weeks of an incredibly close election is questionable to even her Democrat supporters. (According to the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s prediction model, Trump has an 87% chance of winning Texas.)In addition, Harris began the week with a one-day tour of the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin – with a controversial and defeated former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney of Wyoming.
Critics, especially on the left, have questioned the wisdom of taking the hawkish Cheney – the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney – to Michigan, where the Wolverine State is home to more than 200,000 Arab Americans, many of whom are outraged about the Biden-Harris White House’s even tepid backing of Israel through its assault on Gaza and Lebanon.
The event was intended to give Harris the chance to go before a mainstream, nationwide prime-time audience – which brought in 3.2 million viewers and reached more than 700,000 people in the 25-to-54-year-old age demographic according to the network.
Media and reviews from Harris's fellow Democrats are criticizing Harris for missing the moment to sell her candidacy, as polls have started to show a shift toward former President Trump. CNN's panel of political experts took issue with the vice president being too evasive in her answers, and overly relying on typical stump speech talking points while fielding a questions.
But even longtime Democrat strategist David Axelrod said Harris at times took too long to explain her answers – on questions she was mostly dodging – saying she spoke in a “word salad.”
“The thing that would concern me is when she doesn’t want to answer a question, her habit is to kind of go to word salad city, and she did that on a couple of answers,” he said Wednesday night on CNN.
Axelrod wasn't the only CNN post-event panelist to rail on Harris's performance:- David Urban: "Kamala lost a one person debate."
- Dana Bash: "Kamala did not close the deal."
- Van Jones: "The word salad stuff gets on my nerves."
- Axelrod: She is word salad city.
- Jake Tapper: She spent most of her time talking about Trump.
- Scott Jennings: Kamala is a “double-threat,” because she can’t think on her feet and can’t answer anything – even the expected questions.
“For all the talk that we’ve had about this election being historically close, which it is, chances are the winner will still actually score a relative blowout in the Electoral College,” Enten said.
Harris’s recent media and television interviews, and other public appearances have made little headway in rallying voters – or, in fact, have drawn critical reviews from media outlets and other Democrats.
Meanwhile, the last week of polls show Donald Trump is steadily gaining ground daily.
All of those moves come at a time when Trump's climb in the polls have erased the slight battleground-state leads that Harris enjoyed.
Now, Trump has the lead in 6 of the 7 Battleground States – even if sometimes by the tiniest margins – save for Pennsylvania in the polling averages maintained by The Hill & Decision Desk HQ.
Harris retains a small lead in National Polls, but the situation in the battleground states has led Decision Desk HQ to give Trump a 52% chance of prevailing overall.
