By Karl Rove
When Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton meet Monday for the first of their three debates how much is at stake? With so many unhappy voters a big mistake on either side could scramble the contest. But dont count on it.
For all the importance attached to presidential debates they tend to confirm existing trends.
President Gerald Ford may have mistakenly denied Soviet domination of Eastern Europe in a 1976 exchange with Gov. Jimmy Carter. But Ford was already whittling away at Mr. Carters lead before that encounter and afterward the race kept tightening.
It happened again in 1980. Before their single debate polls showed Gov. Ronald Reagan gaining against President Carter. Reagans debate performance affirmed the growing perception that he was up to the job and he won in a landslide.
The exception was 1984. In the first debate that year President Reagan then 73 years old looked confused and out of it. As a result he dropped eight points. But in the second debate he delivered the devastating comeback to his opponent the 56-year-old former Vice President Walter Mondale.
I am not going to exploit for political purposes" Reagan said my opponents youth and inexperience."
He quickly regained those eight points and then some winning 49 states.
When Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton meet Monday for the first of their three debates both candidates should walk out onto the debate stage understanding what Americans think of them good and bad. Their task is to reinforce their individual strengths exploit each others weaknesses and mitigate their own shortcomings.
For Mr. Trump this mission is simpler. Hes the outsider and voters thirst for change. Yet most Americans believe he lacks the character and temperament to be president. Mr. Trump must reassure them.
He talks in short powerful sentences which is a strength. He should pair it with a presidential tone as he did during his news conference in Mexico City where he was restrained and humble rather than angry or rude.
Mr. Trump should know that Mondays debate will be much different from the ones in the GOP primary. Because so many candidates were on stage those were essentially serial news conferences with contenders delivering one-liners in turn. When in-depth policy discussions intruded Mr. Trump could recede into silence or offer even shorter answers as his competitors grabbed for the freed-up time.
By contrast Mondays debate will feature a lot of back-and-forth between the candidates on policy. Mr. Trump cannot match the depth of Mrs. Clintons knowledge but to appeal beyond his base he must avoid coming across as ignorant and shallow.
He should be careful not to overdo his attacks. Mr. Trump promises to keep questioning Mrs. Clintons fitness for the presidency by pushing on her email server health conflicts of interest with the Clinton Foundation and record in office. But if he appears too aggressive he could make her a sympathetic figure.
Mrs. Clinton though a more accomplished debater has a tougher task. Voters believe she has the experience qualifications and temperament to do the job. But by emphasizing these traits she underscores that she is the status quo. The more voters believe she will be only a third term for President Obama offering nothing new the steeper her road to victory.
Mrs. Clinton must persuade Americans that she favors reasonable but far-reaching change and that her experience equips her to achieve it. Easier said than done. Mrs. Clinton has shown that she can deliver laundry lists of policies but she cant prioritize them and finds it hard to articulate a vision. Still she comes across as optimistic and more of a unifier than Mr. Trump important advantages in this dispiriting election.
The former secretary of state is likely to have many opportunities to fact check Mr. Trump but must do so without sounding condescending. She should aim to provoke Mr. Trump to cause him to lose his cool and lash out with personal attacks. If she does she will start social media chattering and win the post-debate coverage.
Good moments can be more important than good arguments. Few people who watched the first debate in 2000 remembered who prevailed in what policy dispute. But George W. Bush won the moment and the debate with his curt dismissive nod when Vice President Al Gore attempted to menacingly invade his space.
Body language tone and appearance can be as consequential as whats said. Richard Nixon learned that the hard way against John F. Kennedy.
Having three debates scheduled means candidates can recover from a bad performance. Both George W. Bush and Barack Obama survived mediocre first outings. But with an estimated 100 million people likely to watch Mondays matchup is a golden opportunity for this years flawed candidates to begin taking control of the race.
Mr. Rove helped organize the political-action committee American Crossroads and is the author of The Triumph of William McKinley" (Simon & Schuster 2015).
