No president in history has faced such a deep partisan divide or such unanimous support within his own party
WASHINGTON D.C. (Texas Insider Report) Who will President Donald Trumps opponent be? Will Democrats have resolved the ideological generational and demographic questions that are continuing to roil their primary? One thing is certain: Over the next year voters will be force-fed more information than ever before as the try to decide whether President Donald Trump is re-elected to a 2nd Term.
- Will the strong economy continue shore up Trumps support?
- Will the president face voters as just the third American president to have been impeached by the House of Representatives?
While much remains to be determined prior to the November 3rd 2020 election historians and political analysts alike say the nation is already in the midst of a Presidential Election as deeply divided politically as it has been in more than half a century.
It seems like Republicans and Democrats are intractable said Mark Updegrove a presidential historian and chairman of the Lyndon Baines Johnson Foundation.
Theyre both adhering to their own versions of reality whether theyre based in truth or not.
Updegrove says the biggest unknown question for a year from now will be whether impeachment has mattered or not.
If not what will matter to the American people as a whole? he asked. Is there anything?
The political divisions today reflect societal and economic schisms between more rural largely white communities where the economy depends on industries being depleted by outsourcing or automation and more urban racially diverse areas dominated by a service economy and where technology booms are increasing wealth.
Many of those divisions existed before President Trump and the exposure of media bias and the rapid movement to the left of the Democrat Partys presidential candidates has exacerbated them.
Trump has panned his political opponents as socialists while Democrats view his vision for Americas future as anathema to the nations founding values.
Polling conducted by the Gallup firm shows that an average of 86 of Republicans have approved of President Trumps job during the course of his time in office and no less than 79 have approved in any individual poll.
Thats compared with just 7 of Democrats who have approved on average including no more than 12 in any individual poll.
Indeed no president in the history of public opinion polling has faced such a deep and consistent partisan polarization or such unanimous support within his own party.
One thing that does unite the parties: voters widespread interest in the presidential campaign even at this early phase. A poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows 82 of Democrats and 74 of Republicans are already interested in the election.
To win Trumps campaign needs to recreate the enthusiasm among his core supporters. And as president Trump has leaned hard into re-enforcing Border Security through nearly every means possible while Democrats have fought the immigration policies that enlivened his supporters in 2016 at virtually every turn both legislatively and in the courts.
While Trump has tried to convince more skeptical mainstream voters the nation is at risk Democrats have moved so far to the left espousing free health care for illegal immigrants as to be outside of the mainstream.
In addition to trying to persuade independents and moderate Democrats to switch their allegiances President Trumps Campaign also believes it has to do a better job at identifying potential voters who didnt show up in 2016 and mobilize them to vote.
As in most presidential elections Trumps case for reelection may hinge on the state of the economy which continues to grow. The unemployment rate is at a five-decade low of 3.6 particularly affecting hispanic & black voters and the stock market continues to reach new highs and create a level of wealth Americans retirement accounts have never seen before.
At the end of the day people care about their pocket books and how theyre doing and the president can clearly point to life being better off said Jason Chaffetz a former Republican congressman from Utah.
But he added Any precipitous drop could hurt the president.
The president delivered a massive tax cut in 2017 and it has provided a rocket-like thrust that pushed the nations economic growth above the 3 annual rate of growth that Trump promised. Job growth has been solid but in isolated parts of the industrial Midwest some factory jobs have recently been shed.
Consumers Confidence is at or near record highs helped by low interest rates and the trade war with China has shown to his voters Trumps willingness to fight for them. Yet it has led to a decline in the type of business investment that fuels growth.
That is the story of the American economy Democrats want to tell over the next year.
But the party is still struggling to figure out its own message to voters beyond contempt for Trump the one sure thing that unites Democrat voters.
And with just three months until primary-season voting begins the top tier of Democrat Candidates sprint to embrace socialistic ideas reflects the partys uncertainty over its own identity.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has been weakened by the exposure of his son Hunters seemingly under-handed or possibly even corrupt business dealings with foreign governments for which he lacks the necessary experience. And Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont continue to compete for the most energetic Democrat voters by pushing for such sweeping liberal change that mainstream voters appear to be nervous.
And with all three of those candidates in their 70s Pete Buttigieg the 37-year-old mayor of small-town South Bend Indiana is running a surprisingly successful campaign on a call for generational change.
I didnt just come here to end the era of Donald Trump. I am here to launch the era that must come next Buttigieg said recently during a Democrat Party dinner in Iowa.
The biggest known unknown for both parties will likely be how the ongoing impeachment proceedings end or are viewed by the American voters one year from now.
But like the broader contours of American politics in 2019 the impeachment proceedings are thus far breaking along party lines. A vote last week in the House of Representatives on the rules for impeachment passed with support from all but two Democrats. Every Republican voted no.
While those numbers would allow Democrats to impeach the president in the House the chances of it being defeated in the Republican-controlled Senate are certain.
That would leave President Trump as the first president in the nations history to face re-election after impeachment by the Democrat-controlled and partisan-driven House.