“It’s gradually drifted to Trump over a fairly long period now – 2 out of every 3 days Harris's lost ground in the forecasts since roughly early October.”
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — “We’re all missing something – and its because they’re giving us the same poll over and over again. There isn’t even statistical variation. I think the pollsters are getting this wrong,” said Republican consultant Alex Castellanos, who has worked on the campaigns of candidates such as Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, noting that changing fundamentals in the 2024 U.S Voter have been overlooked..
“It’s like they’re telling us – we’re watching a basketball game, and its one where every play’s a jump ball,” he said.
“Somebody’s missing something.”
“What I think they’re missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this.
"Thirty-one states have voter registration by party – and 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans,” Castellanos said.
“Somebody’s missing something.”“What I think they’re missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this.
"Thirty-one states have voter registration by party – and 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans,” Castellanos said.
“I think there’s – I’m not going to call it a wave – but I think there’s a wavelet out there of Republican enthusiasm and registration.
“If I register to vote Republican, whether I’m switching parties or am new, what am I going to do?” he said.
What’s alarming for Democrats, is that Trump has a track record of "under-performing" in the pre-election political polls – especially in the Midwestern states Harris is counting on – and "over-performing" at the ballot-box polls on Election Day.
Has the Country Shifted Toward the Republican Party?
Pollster Nate Silver recently said Trump has been well ahead of Harris, regardless of what late polls say.
“It’s basically 55-45 Trump or 54-45,” Silver explained with regards to the Electoral College vote.
“It’s gradually drifted to Trump over a fairly long period now – two out of every three days Harris has lost ground in the forecast since roughly early October,” he said.
“It’s gradually drifted to Trump over a fairly long period now – two out of every three days Harris has lost ground in the forecast since roughly early October,” he said.
Silver said late polls are often fake results. The danger is that all the firms then end up collectively biasing their results in a way that does not match reality among the voting public.In the polling industry, the phrase "herding' involves polling firms adjusting their results to other pollsters’ findings so as to not be too much of an outlier, according to the American Association for Public Opinion Research.
Regardless, during the past two weeks Kamala Harris has been trying to revive her stagnant campaign by smearing Donald Trump (with an assist from Joe Biden who called them "garbage,") as being Hitlerian and fascist. She has even claimed Mr. Trump is planning to put his enemies in encampments.
That the once "joyful" Kamala Harris is ending her campaign by trafficking in what pollsters see reflected from voters in their surveys as lies and smears, is likely indicative of Castellanos's premonition.
"Thirty-one states have voter registration by party – and 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement toward Republicans. Somebody’s missing something.”
