While tied or leading today, four years ago with 10 days to go Trump trailed Biden by 9% in Michigan, 6% in Wisconsin, 5% in Pennsylvania, and 2% in Arizona
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — Fueled by recent polling trends that show Donald Trump is in a stronger and improving position than just a few weeks ago – and in a better position at this stage of 2024 than he was in 2016's winning campaign – the rapidly growing concerns among Democrat Party insiders confirms that Donald Trump has captured the momentum going in the final 10-days of the 2024 Presidential Race.
As of just two days ago, Mr. Trump has:- Seen gains in the 7 Key Battleground States sufficient enough for – for the first time this cycle – the DecisionDesk HQ/The Hill Election Forecast to give Trump a 52% chance of defeating Kamala Harris,
- while Harris's chances have declined to 48%
- Had RealClearPolitics' betting odds now give Trump a 59% chance of winning,
- while FiveThirtyEight recently downgraded Harris's chances of winning to 47%,
- as The Economist's Monday Election Update upgraded Trump's chance of winning to 54%.
Citing their own strong internal polling data, Donald Trump and his campaign appear to be entering into the final 10-day stretch of the 2024 race for the White House with a growing level of momentum and an increasing level of voter support necessary to win a second term as president.
Also, there is also a growing sense of fear in Democrat Party circles that the presidential race could be slipping away from Vice President Harris by the day.
While polling results have almost universally been within the margin of error – and mostly serve to underscore the closeness of the race – they are also looking better for Trump than at the same time four years ago, when he narrowly lost the presidential race to Joe Biden.
According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls at the same time four years ago, Trump was trailing Biden by 9% in Michigan, 6% in Wisconsin, 5% in Pennsylvania, and 2% in Arizona. The candidates were tied in the state of Georgia.Trump ultimately lost each of those states by margins that were far closer than the polls had predicted.
“There’s never been anything like this – the rallies, the size of them, the enthusiasm – and we have more enthusiasm now than we did for 2016 or 2020.” said Trump Tuesday during a rally in North Carolina.
For all the Democrat anxiety about Harris’s decline in the polls and the appearance of her campaign stalling in the home strecth of the election, an argument is still being made by some of her supporters that her strength with women – a reliable voting bloc that makes up a majority of the electorate – could put her over the top.
“I think that in this election it’s going to be so tight, just from everything we’ve seen from polling, that it’s understandable both sides are a little nervous,” said Sarah Matthews, a former Trump aide who is backing Harris.
"I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous."
"I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous."
Harris sees Troubling Signs in Latest New York Times/Siena Poll
The final National New York Times & Siena College Poll before Election Day has some troubling signs for Vice President Harris as well.
The poll shows Kamala Harris deadlocked with Donald Trump after leading him in an early October version of the poll by 3%.
The latest New York Times-Siena Poll suggests Harris is not building up a sufficient enough lead in the popular vote to indicate she could win the key races in the closely fought Swing States.
Both candidates received 48% of the popular vote in the poll – but in early October Harris had a 49-to-46% lead over Trump.
The latest New York Times-Siena Poll suggests Harris is not building up a sufficient enough lead in the popular vote to indicate she could win the key races in the closely fought Swing States.
Both candidates received 48% of the popular vote in the poll – but in early October Harris had a 49-to-46% lead over Trump. Since the Democrat nominee has won the popular vote in the last four presidential elections, and seven of the last eight races, the new poll is sparking talk within the party that Harris could actually lose the popular vote to Trump.
Another bad sign for Harris in the polls shows that just 28% of respondents said the country was "headed in the right direction" – a difficult number for a member of the sitting administration to overcome.
- The economy remains the single largest issue among voters this election.
- At 52%, more voters said they believed Donald Trump would handle the issue better – compared to 45% for Harris.
- On the 2nd most improtant issue, 15% of respondents said immigration is the biggest concen to them in the election, up from 12% in the last poll.
- Trump led Harris by 11% when asked whom voters trusted more to solve the issue – 54% to 43%.
None of these polling results are making Democrats feel better about an Election Day that is now less than two weeks away.
“Everyone keeps saying, ‘It’s close.’ Yes, it’s close, but are things trending our way? No. And no one wants to openly admit that,” one Democratic strategist said.
“Could we still win? Maybe.
"Should anyone be even slightly optimistic right now? No.”
Kamala Harris’s recent media and television interviews, and other public appearances have made little headway in rallying voters – or, in fact, have drawn critical reviews from media outlets and other Democrats.
Meanwhile, the last week of polling shows Donald Trump is steadily gaining ground daily.
With just over one week before Election Day, the contest continues to hinge on the states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Polling between the two candidates remains incredibly tight in all seven Swing States, suggesting the race could be one of the closest in American history.
- The New York Times & Siena College Poll of 2,516 voters nationwide was conducted October 20th-23rd, and has a Margin of Error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.
