Republican's Lead Jumps to 7% in Congressional Ballot, as 89% of Likely Voters 'Concerned' About inflation

Expanded Republican Lead due mainly to a 16% advantage among Independents, as the economy remains voter's "Top Concern" ahead of mid-terms

WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — Over 70% of "Likely U.S. Voters" believe the nation is headed in the “Wrong Direction” under Joe Biden's leadersip and Democrat's control of Congress, while just 27% say the country is heading in the "Right Direction" according to a survey of 2,500 Likely Voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports from October 9th-13th, 2022.

And in further bad news for Democrats, Rasmussen's "Economic Confidence Index" decreased in October to 85.8, more than three points lower than in September.

Enthusiasm about the economy surged to a high of 147.8 in January 2020 under former President Donald Trump, but has dropped sharply since Joe Biden was elected. This survey of 1,500 American Adults was conducted on October 2nd by Rasmussen, and has a +/- 3% margin of sampling error is with a 95% level of confidence. 

GOP Congressional Lead Now at 7% in Generic Congressional Ballot

With the 2022 Mid-Term Elections just 20 days away, Republicans now have a 7% lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress – up 3% from last week. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today:
  • 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican Candidate, while
  • 41% would vote for the Democrat
  • 4% would vote for some other candidate, and
  • 7% are not sure
    • To see survey question wording, click here.
    • The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 9-13, 2022.
The GOP lead is up three points from last week, when they led 47% to 43%.

Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.  

In October 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats and Republicans were tied at 45% each in the "Generic Ballot" question. The margin was still a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority, while Republicans gained seats in the Senate to maintain control of that chamber.

The expanded Republican lead is due mainly to a 16% advantage among independent voters. Among voters not affiliated with either major party:
  • 46% would vote Republican
  • 30% would vote Democrat
  • 9% would vote for some other candidate,
  • 15% are undecided
Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 45% of other minorities, and 27% of black voters would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of black voters, 42% of other minorities, and 38% of whites would vote Democrat.
  • The so-called “Gender Gap” has widened in the latest findings, with 53% of men now 10% more likely than women voters (43%) to prefer Republican Congressional Candidates.
    • That gap was 2% last week.
  • Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 12% margin, 47% to 35%, but
  • Voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 52% to 39%, and among
  • Voters 65 and Older the GOP leads by 18% – 56% to 38%.
Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats lead by 12 points, 51% to 39%, among voters with annual incomes over $200,000, while Republicans have a 12-point advantage among those earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year.

Despite media focus on other issues possibly impacting the election:
  • The economy remains the top concern for voters just weeks ahead of November’s crucial mid-terms, and
  • After school controversies such as "Critical Race Theory" and " Social Grooming" helped Republicans win big in Virginia's governor race, education remains an important issue for most voters.
Republicans now hold strong majorities among both government employees and retirees, while private sector workers are almost evenly divided, with 44% for Democrats and 43% for Republicans.