Despite Honeymoon Bounce, Democrat statatician sees Trump besting Harris in November
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — “Kamala Harris is in much better shape than Joe Biden, but she has one big problem – the Electoral College,” wrote nationally recognized Political Statistician Nate Silver, a self-proclaimed liberal who has repeatedly said he doesn’t want Donald Trump to win, in his Tuesday, July 30th "Election Forecast.“
The data analyst said while Harris has a slight edge to win the popular vote:
Trump has a bullish 61.3% chance of winning the Electoral College, while- Harris has a 38.1% chance of an Electoral College victory.
Silver’s prediction model has Donald Trump receiving 280 Electoral College votes versus 257 for Harris.
Last month – when Joe Biden was considered the presumed Democrat Nominee – Silver had estimated Trump’s chances of victory at 65.7%, based on 40,000 simulations run through his statistical prediction model.
While making his June forecast, Silver underscored that “I don’t want Trump to win the election, and I’d never consider voting for him.”
However, he conceded: “The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden).”
Silver’s latest forecast shows that while the Democrats’ gambit of switching out Biden for Harris helped, she’s still on track to go down in flames.
“Harris will give Democrats a fighting chance,” Silver wrote. “In fact, she’s a slight favorite over Donald Trump in the popular vote, which Democrats have won in all but one election since 2000.”
He added: “However, she’s a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College, risking a repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 elections.”
What’s interesting is how small Harris‘ projected margin of victory in the popular vote over Trump is: 53.5% versus 46.5%,
The meager 7-point margin is shocking, given the nonstop barrage of positive media coverage of Harris – compared to the constant and ongoing onslaught of negative coverage for Donald Trump.
While it may be useful to read forecasts, it’s important to remember that polls and predictions don’t win races – especially in July. Fair elections do that in November.
As long the potential for voter fraud goes unchecked, election predictions don’t amount to a hill of beans.
- READ MORE: 62% Majority of Voters Are Concerned Cheating Will Impact 2024 Election: Heartland-Rasmussen Poll
- “In December of 2023 we discovered more than 1-in-every-5 voters admitted to voting fraudulently during the 2020 Election – and in April 2024 we found that 28% of 'Likely Voters' admitted they would cheat in the upcoming 2024 Election if given the opportunity,” said Donald Kendal, director of the Socialism Research Center at The Heartland Institute.
- “The tools for election fraud are everywhere – that’s why people are rightly worried that millions of illegal ballots might be cast this November."
