“As of now, Democrats have more vulnerable open seats. This is helpful to Republicans..."
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Texas Insider Report) — As an increasing number of House Democrats who hold Congressional seats in what's often referred to as "Swing Districts" are becoming subject to Republican challenges in 2024, “Swing-seat Democrats are racing for the exits – making their party’s climb out of the minority even steeper,” said Jack Pandol, Director of the House GOP Republican's National Congressional Commitee..
"The House Congressional Committee is pouncing on each of these open seat opportunities, and will be growing our majority.”
With concern growing daily over Joe Biden's ability to provide a strong boost from the top of the ticket, and as Democrat uncertainty over having to defend many of the party's leftist policy positions and "Bidenomics" increases, next year's electionis are shaping up to pose an opportunity for the GOP to flip the Congressional balance of power in 2024Yes. House Republicans are better positioned to capitalize on a wave of Congressional retirements in 2024 – as 31 House Members have already announced they'll not be seeking re-election in 2024, which includes 20 Democrats and 11 Republicans
Nearly all of those seats that are considered to be "safe Republican," or "leaning" toward the GOP.
“Retirements always have an impact on which party gains or loses seats – it depends on the district composition of the retiring members,” says Ron Faucheux, president of the nonpartisan polling firm Clarus Research Group, said recently.
"At this point, retirements are another complication for Democrats to pick up the seats they need for a majority. Often retirements reflect re-election difficulty – and that’s another factor.”
"At this point, retirements are another complication for Democrats to pick up the seats they need for a majority. Often retirements reflect re-election difficulty – and that’s another factor.”
Newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson, who has only held the position for a month, has already begun fundraising to grow the GOP’s majority in 2024. Johnson recently helped raise $1.4 million during a Florida fundraiser with Rep. Vern Buchanan, and was head to New York this past weekend for a National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)donor retreat, as well as fundraise for Rep. Mike Lawler.
The NRCC experienced its largest fundraising boost for a single day since February of 2022 after Johnson was elected on Oct. 25th, and the House GOP’s super political action committee, the Congressional Leadership Fund, brought in $16 million after he secured the gavel.
And, the NRCC already has a 2024 target list of what it views as 37 vulnerable incumbent Democrats.
The Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) also has a target list, which includes a “Frontline Program” of 29 competitive seats it is focused on protecting next year.“Speaker Johnson has hit the ground running to ensure Republicans in critical districts have the resources they need to achieve victory,” says Team Johnson Executive Director Billy Constangy.
“The Speaker is all-in to grow our majority, and the creation of this new joint fundraising committee shows he is committed to doing his part to help the team.,” Constangy said.
“The Speaker is all-in to grow our majority, and the creation of this new joint fundraising committee shows he is committed to doing his part to help the team.,” Constangy said.
Four Democratic-held open seats in battleground districts in Michigan, Virginia and California are most likely to flip red, while several other seats are also up for grabs by the GOP in 2024, according to political analysts and electoral rankings.
The seats held by Reps. Dan Kildee of Michigan, Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, Katie Porter of California and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan are currently the most vulnerable among outgoing Democrats, according to David Wasserman, elections analyst at The Cook Political Report.
Kildee announced his retirement from politics Nov. 16, Spanberger launched a gubernatorial campaign on Nov. 13 and Porter and Slotkin have been running for Senate since earlier this year.
“In 2022, they massively outspent the Republicans running against them – and that was a big reason they were able to hold onto their seats, even while Democrats lost control of the House,” Wasserman said.
“And yet we could be looking at a more level playing field in 2024 in these districts where both Republicans and Democrats could be spending similar amounts.”
“We always evaluate the balance sheet of open seats to determine which side has an advantage. And so far, Republicans are benefiting from more offensive opportunities in open seats – which is ironic considering that they’re the party that’s been in more turmoil, and could suffer a slate of retirements before all is said and done,” said Wasserman.
“And yet we could be looking at a more level playing field in 2024 in these districts where both Republicans and Democrats could be spending similar amounts.”
“We always evaluate the balance sheet of open seats to determine which side has an advantage. And so far, Republicans are benefiting from more offensive opportunities in open seats – which is ironic considering that they’re the party that’s been in more turmoil, and could suffer a slate of retirements before all is said and done,” said Wasserman.
For political analysts follwoing candidate filing that in many instances are now open while the 2024 Primary Season approaches, none of the seats held by Republicans who are not seeking reelection in 2024 are considered competitive except for that of New York Rep. George Santos, who faced an expulsion vote from his fellow Republicans.“As of now, Democrats have more vulnerable open seats. This is helpful to Republicans – although it's worth noting that incumbency is probably not as important as it once was,” said Kyle Kondik, nonpartisan polling analyst and managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
“Republican's overall edge is small, and there are enough competitive seats that either side could win. So the race for the House, overall, is still basically a Toss-up." Kondik says.
“Republican's overall edge is small, and there are enough competitive seats that either side could win. So the race for the House, overall, is still basically a Toss-up." Kondik says.
Wasserman also cautioned that “there aren’t that many competitive open seats” compared to other cycles, adding that it’s still a bit too early to decipher whether Republicans should be given an outright advantage in the House, where they currently hold a slim majority.
